Stable high-pressure systems and clear skies over central Spain are driving forecasts for Madrid's August 12 maximum near 38–39°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 90% combined probability. Late-summer insolation peaks, combined with low humidity and minimal cloud cover typical of an anticyclone, support efficient daytime heating in Madrid’s continental climate, where historical August averages sit around 32–33°C. Recent model runs from sources including timeanddate and extended outlooks show consistency around these levels, with only minor variations from steering patterns or a partial solar eclipse reducing insolation briefly. Uncertainties in exact peak timing and local measurement keep probabilities for 37°C or 40°C low but non-zero. Updated AEMET and numerical guidance ahead of resolution will refine trader consensus on these thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 12. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 12. August?
39°C 59%
38°C 33%
40°C 9%
37°C 3%
NEU
$12,962 Vol.
NEU
$12,962 Vol.
12. Aug. 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
33%
39°C
59%
40°C
9%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 59%
38°C 33%
40°C 9%
37°C 3%
NEU
$12,962 Vol.
NEU
$12,962 Vol.
12. Aug. 2026
33°C or below
$1,373 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$417 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$574 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$347 Vol.
1%
37°C
$1,234 Vol.
3%
38°C
$4,294 Vol.
33%
39°C
$1,850 Vol.
59%
40°C
$1,308 Vol.
9%
41°C
$381 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$552 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$631 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure systems and clear skies over central Spain are driving forecasts for Madrid's August 12 maximum near 38–39°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 90% combined probability. Late-summer insolation peaks, combined with low humidity and minimal cloud cover typical of an anticyclone, support efficient daytime heating in Madrid’s continental climate, where historical August averages sit around 32–33°C. Recent model runs from sources including timeanddate and extended outlooks show consistency around these levels, with only minor variations from steering patterns or a partial solar eclipse reducing insolation briefly. Uncertainties in exact peak timing and local measurement keep probabilities for 37°C or 40°C low but non-zero. Updated AEMET and numerical guidance ahead of resolution will refine trader consensus on these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$12,962Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Stable high-pressure systems and clear skies over central Spain are driving forecasts for Madrid's August 12 maximum near 38–39°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 90% combined probability. Late-summer insolation peaks, combined with low humidity and minimal cloud cover typical of an anticyclone, support efficient daytime heating in Madrid’s continental climate, where historical August averages sit around 32–33°C. Recent model runs from sources including timeanddate and extended outlooks show consistency around these levels, with only minor variations from steering patterns or a partial solar eclipse reducing insolation briefly. Uncertainties in exact peak timing and local measurement keep probabilities for 37°C or 40°C low but non-zero. Updated AEMET and numerical guidance ahead of resolution will refine trader consensus on these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$12,962Enddatum
12. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stable high-pressure systems and clear skies over central Spain are driving forecasts for Madrid's August 12 maximum near 38–39°C, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 90% combined probability. Late-summer insolation peaks, combined with low humidity and minimal cloud cover typical of an anticyclone, support efficient daytime heating in Madrid’s continental climate, where historical August averages sit around 32–33°C. Recent model runs from sources including timeanddate and extended outlooks show consistency around these levels, with only minor variations from steering patterns or a partial solar eclipse reducing insolation briefly. Uncertainties in exact peak timing and local measurement keep probabilities for 37°C or 40°C low but non-zero. Updated AEMET and numerical guidance ahead of resolution will refine trader consensus on these thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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