Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies converge on a daily high near 31°C for Shanghai on August 17, reflecting typical mid-August climatology with highs averaging 31–32°C amid high humidity and urban heat effects. Recent days have featured scattered showers and cloud cover that suppressed peaks to 29–30°C, supporting the 44.5% market-implied odds on 31°C and 27% on 30°C as traders weigh lingering moisture against potential afternoon clearing. Steep probability drops beyond 32°C align with seasonal cooling trends and low odds of intense insolation or heat advection this late in the month. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these aggregates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 17. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 17. August?
31°C 45%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 6%
NEU
NEU
17. Aug. 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
6%
30°C
26%
31°C
45%
32°C
18%
33°C
2%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 45%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 6%
NEU
NEU
17. Aug. 2026
25°C or below
$159 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$159 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$487 Vol.
3%
29°C
$1,490 Vol.
6%
30°C
$562 Vol.
26%
31°C
$1,195 Vol.
45%
32°C
$1,226 Vol.
18%
33°C
$173 Vol.
2%
34°C
$709 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies converge on a daily high near 31°C for Shanghai on August 17, reflecting typical mid-August climatology with highs averaging 31–32°C amid high humidity and urban heat effects. Recent days have featured scattered showers and cloud cover that suppressed peaks to 29–30°C, supporting the 44.5% market-implied odds on 31°C and 27% on 30°C as traders weigh lingering moisture against potential afternoon clearing. Steep probability drops beyond 32°C align with seasonal cooling trends and low odds of intense insolation or heat advection this late in the month. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these aggregates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volumen
$6,709Enddatum
17. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies converge on a daily high near 31°C for Shanghai on August 17, reflecting typical mid-August climatology with highs averaging 31–32°C amid high humidity and urban heat effects. Recent days have featured scattered showers and cloud cover that suppressed peaks to 29–30°C, supporting the 44.5% market-implied odds on 31°C and 27% on 30°C as traders weigh lingering moisture against potential afternoon clearing. Steep probability drops beyond 32°C align with seasonal cooling trends and low odds of intense insolation or heat advection this late in the month. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these aggregates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$6,709Enddatum
17. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies converge on a daily high near 31°C for Shanghai on August 17, reflecting typical mid-August climatology with highs averaging 31–32°C amid high humidity and urban heat effects. Recent days have featured scattered showers and cloud cover that suppressed peaks to 29–30°C, supporting the 44.5% market-implied odds on 31°C and 27% on 30°C as traders weigh lingering moisture against potential afternoon clearing. Steep probability drops beyond 32°C align with seasonal cooling trends and low odds of intense insolation or heat advection this late in the month. Updated model runs and official briefings tomorrow morning represent the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these aggregates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen