Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate a daily high near 30°C for Shanghai on September 6, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability at that level. Early September climatology shows mean highs of 28–30°C as the subtropical high weakens and seasonal cooling begins, with recent ensemble runs incorporating light rain and northerly flow that moderates peak temperatures while limiting extreme outliers. Urban heat effects and humidity may support readings at or slightly above the forecast, yet model consensus and historical analogs for the date favor the narrow 29–31°C band over hotter or cooler outcomes. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration ahead of resolution will be the key variable for traders.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shanghai am 6. September?
30°C 49%
29°C 30%
31°C 17%
28°C 5%
25°C oder niedriger
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
30%
30°C
49%
31°C
17%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C oder höher
<1%
30°C 49%
29°C 30%
31°C 17%
28°C 5%
25°C oder niedriger
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
30%
30°C
49%
31°C
17%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate a daily high near 30°C for Shanghai on September 6, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability at that level. Early September climatology shows mean highs of 28–30°C as the subtropical high weakens and seasonal cooling begins, with recent ensemble runs incorporating light rain and northerly flow that moderates peak temperatures while limiting extreme outliers. Urban heat effects and humidity may support readings at or slightly above the forecast, yet model consensus and historical analogs for the date favor the narrow 29–31°C band over hotter or cooler outcomes. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration ahead of resolution will be the key variable for traders.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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