Recent ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models converges on a maximum temperature of 23–24 °C in Warsaw on August 12 under a stable high-pressure ridge, light northerly flow, and mostly clear skies that limit additional daytime heating. These conditions align with climatological August norms near 23–25 °C while suppressing the stronger southerly advection or convective development that would push readings higher. Forecasters note modest spread around afternoon boundary-layer mixing and subtle wind shifts, producing the tight market clustering on 23 °C (47 %) and 24 °C (31.5 %). Official resolution will rely on IMGW station observations of the daily peak, with no major model updates or synoptic changes expected before the verification window closes.