Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for the seat vacated by Keir Starmer's resignation sits at the centre of trader attention, with the 40-45% range holding the highest implied probability. The contest features 15 candidates, including Labour's Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski, in a constituency where recent local elections showed Labour on roughly 38% and the Greens near 29%. By-election dynamics, including lower turnout and vote fragmentation across Reform UK, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and others, are viewed as the main variables that could compress or lift Labour's share relative to its 48.9% general-election result. Traders weigh the party's local organisational edge against the Green challenge in this progressive London area.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHolborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?
Holborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?
40-45 % 34%
35-40 % 27%
45-50 % 17%
50 %+. 15%
NEU
NEU
8. Okt. 2026
<30%
11%
30-35%
8%
35-40 %
15%
40-45 %
34%
45-50 %
17%
50 %+.
15%
40-45 % 34%
35-40 % 27%
45-50 % 17%
50 %+. 15%
NEU
NEU
8. Okt. 2026
<30%
$77 Vol.
11%
30-35%
$76 Vol.
8%
35-40 %
$90 Vol.
15%
40-45 %
$252 Vol.
34%
45-50 %
$116 Vol.
17%
50 %+.
$208 Vol.
15%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for the seat vacated by Keir Starmer's resignation sits at the centre of trader attention, with the 40-45% range holding the highest implied probability. The contest features 15 candidates, including Labour's Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski, in a constituency where recent local elections showed Labour on roughly 38% and the Greens near 29%. By-election dynamics, including lower turnout and vote fragmentation across Reform UK, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and others, are viewed as the main variables that could compress or lift Labour's share relative to its 48.9% general-election result. Traders weigh the party's local organisational edge against the Green challenge in this progressive London area.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volumen
$819Enddatum
8. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for the seat vacated by Keir Starmer's resignation sits at the centre of trader attention, with the 40-45% range holding the highest implied probability. The contest features 15 candidates, including Labour's Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski, in a constituency where recent local elections showed Labour on roughly 38% and the Greens near 29%. By-election dynamics, including lower turnout and vote fragmentation across Reform UK, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and others, are viewed as the main variables that could compress or lift Labour's share relative to its 48.9% general-election result. Traders weigh the party's local organisational edge against the Green challenge in this progressive London area.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volumen
$819Enddatum
8. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for the seat vacated by Keir Starmer's resignation sits at the centre of trader attention, with the 40-45% range holding the highest implied probability. The contest features 15 candidates, including Labour's Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party leader Zack Polanski, in a constituency where recent local elections showed Labour on roughly 38% and the Greens near 29%. By-election dynamics, including lower turnout and vote fragmentation across Reform UK, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and others, are viewed as the main variables that could compress or lift Labour's share relative to its 48.9% general-election result. Traders weigh the party's local organisational edge against the Green challenge in this progressive London area.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird der Kandidat der Grünen Partei bei der Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras 25-30% der Stimmen erhalten?
28%
Ja
Wird der Labour-Kandidat die Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras mit einem Vorsprung von 15 % oder mehr gewinnen?
29%
Ja
Wird Sagal Abdi-Wali die Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras gewinnen?
82%
Ja
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