Trader sentiment on Tesla's Q2 2026 vehicle deliveries remains tightly contested, with 375k–400k and 475k+ outcomes nearly tied at 24% and 23.9% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty over demand recovery amid competitive EV pressures from BYD and legacy rivals. Strong April catalysts—China wholesales surging 36% year-over-year to a record 79,478 units (largely Model Y exports), Europe registrations exploding over 100% in key markets, and Australia's 145% sales jump—bolstered higher-end bets, building on Q1's strategic 50,000-unit inventory buildup from 408k production versus 358k deliveries. However, fading U.S. incentives and soft retail trends cap optimism, with weekly China insurance data through mid-May and end-quarter ramps as pivotal swing factors ahead of Tesla's early-July report.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert475.000+ 23.1%
375k–400k 21%
425–450 Tsd. 16%
450k–475k 14.0%
$41,747 Vol.
$41,747 Vol.
<300k
8%
300.000–325.000
1%
325k–350k
12%
350.000–375.000
11%
375k–400k
23%
400.000–425.000
17%
425–450 Tsd.
19%
450k–475k
19%
475.000+
23%
475.000+ 23.1%
375k–400k 21%
425–450 Tsd. 16%
450k–475k 14.0%
$41,747 Vol.
$41,747 Vol.
<300k
8%
300.000–325.000
1%
325k–350k
12%
350.000–375.000
11%
375k–400k
23%
400.000–425.000
17%
425–450 Tsd.
19%
450k–475k
19%
475.000+
23%
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Tesla's Q2 2026 vehicle deliveries remains tightly contested, with 375k–400k and 475k+ outcomes nearly tied at 24% and 23.9% implied probabilities, reflecting uncertainty over demand recovery amid competitive EV pressures from BYD and legacy rivals. Strong April catalysts—China wholesales surging 36% year-over-year to a record 79,478 units (largely Model Y exports), Europe registrations exploding over 100% in key markets, and Australia's 145% sales jump—bolstered higher-end bets, building on Q1's strategic 50,000-unit inventory buildup from 408k production versus 358k deliveries. However, fading U.S. incentives and soft retail trends cap optimism, with weekly China insurance data through mid-May and end-quarter ramps as pivotal swing factors ahead of Tesla's early-July report.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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