Traders see the closest contest between a 32°C-or-higher minimum and temperatures clustered around 27–29°C because late-August forecasts for Chongqing show high uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling. Persistent high humidity, urban heat-island effects, and variable cloud cover from the East Asian monsoon reduce nighttime temperature drops, keeping most model runs near 26–28°C. Recent satellite and surface observations indicate scattered showers or increased low-level moisture that could either trap heat or allow brief clearer skies for greater cooling. Official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies and global ensembles still diverges on exact boundary-layer conditions for the night of August 25–26, leaving the market-implied probabilities closely balanced until the final model updates arrive.