Persistent marine layer stratus and moderate onshore flow from the Pacific are anchoring San Francisco's August 26 maximum near the mid-70s, with National Weather Service guidance centering on 70–72°F amid typical summer coastal cooling. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 74–77°F bins because model consensus shows potential for partial afternoon clearing and reduced cloud cover that could allow modest sensible heating, while stronger low-level winds or a deeper marine inversion would suppress readings toward 72–73°F. Historical August maxima average 69°F, and the narrow spread across leading outcomes reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any haze dissipation rather than large-scale pattern shifts. Updated NWS and ensemble runs tomorrow morning will refine the resolution window around official KSFO observations.