Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a highest temperature of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 25, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, widespread cloud cover, and periods of moderate to heavy rain that limit solar heating and diurnal rise. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 30–33°C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that can suppress or allow brief peaks near 33°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, but active convective patterns this week introduce downward pressure on maxima compared with clearer periods. Updated regional model runs and official Shenzhen bureau guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 25. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Shenzhen am 25. August?
32°C 27%
31°C 26%
30°C 18%
33°C 15%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
5%
29°C
6%
30°C
18%
31°C
26%
32°C
27%
33°C
15%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 27%
31°C 26%
30°C 18%
33°C 15%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
25°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
26°C
$5 Vol.
4%
27°C
$60 Vol.
4%
28°C
$0 Vol.
5%
29°C
$0 Vol.
6%
30°C
$10 Vol.
18%
31°C
$35 Vol.
26%
32°C
$41 Vol.
27%
33°C
$0 Vol.
15%
34°C
$200 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a highest temperature of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 25, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, widespread cloud cover, and periods of moderate to heavy rain that limit solar heating and diurnal rise. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 30–33°C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that can suppress or allow brief peaks near 33°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, but active convective patterns this week introduce downward pressure on maxima compared with clearer periods. Updated regional model runs and official Shenzhen bureau guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$361Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a highest temperature of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 25, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, widespread cloud cover, and periods of moderate to heavy rain that limit solar heating and diurnal rise. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 30–33°C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that can suppress or allow brief peaks near 33°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, but active convective patterns this week introduce downward pressure on maxima compared with clearer periods. Updated regional model runs and official Shenzhen bureau guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$361Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to a highest temperature of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 25, driven by persistent monsoon moisture, widespread cloud cover, and periods of moderate to heavy rain that limit solar heating and diurnal rise. These conditions align with the market’s tight clustering around 30–33°C outcomes, reflecting uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity that can suppress or allow brief peaks near 33°C. Historical August averages near 32°C provide context, but active convective patterns this week introduce downward pressure on maxima compared with clearer periods. Updated regional model runs and official Shenzhen bureau guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the resolution threshold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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