Forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate persistent heavy rain and thunderstorms over Shenzhen on August 25, driven by South China Sea disturbances and a strengthening convergence zone, with expected cloud cover and high humidity limiting daytime heating and nocturnal cooling. This setup supports minimum temperatures clustered around 25–28°C, as models show limited radiative cooling under overcast skies and moist boundary layers. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 25°C, 26°C, and 28°C because subtle differences in rainfall timing and intensity—particularly whether peak precipitation aligns with the overnight hours—can shift the observed low by 1–2°C. Elevated dew points near 25°C further constrain how far temperatures can fall, while historical August climatology for the region shows similar rainy-day minima averaging 26–27°C. Updated model runs from the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of market resolution.