Forecasts from multiple models indicate Moscow's overnight low on September 2 will likely settle near 15°C amid a post-warm front cooling trend, with southwesterly flow and increasing cloud cover limiting radiative cooling while light rain or showers suppress further drops. This places the outcome above the long-term average low of roughly 10.5°C for the date, reflecting warmer-than-normal air masses advected from the southwest rather than northerly intrusions. Ensemble spread arises mainly from timing of cloud breaks and wind shifts overnight, which can alter minimum temperatures by 1–2°C through changes in dew point and boundary-layer mixing. With probabilities tightly clustered from 13–20°C, traders are weighting the consensus of operational runs showing stable mild conditions without significant cold advection. Updated model guidance and satellite observations of incoming frontal boundaries will refine the precise threshold before resolution.