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icon for Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory
Politik·US-Wahl

Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory

icon for Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory
Politik·US-Wahl

Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory

Markey 25–30 % 28%

Markey 20–25 % 28%

Markey 15–20% 27%

Markey 30–35 % 26%

Polymarket
NEU

Markey 25–30 % 28%

Markey 20–25 % 28%

Markey 15–20% 27%

Markey 30–35 % 26%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Markey 40 %+

Markey 40 %+

$16 Vol.

22%

icon for Markey 35–40 %

Markey 35–40 %

$16 Vol.

23%

icon for Markey 30–35 %

Markey 30–35 %

$16 Vol.

26%

icon for Markey 25–30 %

Markey 25–30 %

$16 Vol.

28%

icon for Markey 20–25 %

Markey 20–25 %

$16 Vol.

28%

icon for Markey 15–20%

Markey 15–20%

$16 Vol.

27%

icon for Markey 10–15 %

Markey 10–15 %

$16 Vol.

25%

icon for Markey 5–10 %

Markey 5–10 %

$16 Vol.

22%

icon for Markey <5%

Markey <5%

$16 Vol.

21%

icon for Moulton <5%

Moulton <5%

$16 Vol.

24%

icon for Moulton 5%+

Moulton 5%+

$101 Vol.

10%

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, after earlier surveys had the race much closer. Markey benefits from strong support among progressives, women, liberals, and most age groups, along with higher trust on key issues and solid job approval within the Democratic electorate. Moulton’s emphasis on generational change, age concerns, and appeals to moderates and independents has not closed the gap despite multiple debates and attacks on finances and record. The September 1 primary timing leaves limited runway for further shifts, which traders appear to weigh when pricing Markey’s expected margin of victory alongside residual uncertainty reflected in other outcomes.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$261
Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey expanding his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to 14–28 points among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the September 1 contest, after earlier surveys had the race much closer. Markey benefits from strong support among progressives, women, liberals, and most age groups, along with higher trust on key issues and solid job approval within the Democratic electorate. Moulton’s emphasis on generational change, age concerns, and appeals to moderates and independents has not closed the gap despite multiple debates and attacks on finances and record. The September 1 primary timing leaves limited runway for further shifts, which traders appear to weigh when pricing Markey’s expected margin of victory alongside residual uncertainty reflected in other outcomes.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$261
Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Verwandte

icon for Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Senatswahl 2026 in Massachusetts mit 35%-40% gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Senatswahl 2026 in Massachusetts mit 35%-40% gewinnen?

21%
Ja
icon for Wird Abdul El-Sayed die demokratische Vorwahl zum Senat in Michigan mit weniger als 5 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird Abdul El-Sayed die demokratische Vorwahl zum Senat in Michigan mit weniger als 5 % Vorsprung gewinnen?

99%
Ja
icon for Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl in Massachusetts 2026 mit 25%-30% Vorsprung gewinnen?

Wird der Kandidat der Demokratischen Partei die Gouverneurswahl in Massachusetts 2026 mit 25%-30% Vorsprung gewinnen?

21%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Demokratischer Senat von Massachusetts Primary Margin of Victory" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Markey 25–30 %" mit 28%, gefolgt von „Markey 20–25 %" mit 28%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 28¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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