Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, resilient economic growth, and a solid labor market with unemployment near 4.1% underpin trader expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Following the September 16 tightening to a 3.75–4.00% target range, the Summary of Economic Projections showed a median federal funds rate projection of 4.1% by year-end, with 16 of 18 participants anticipating at least one additional increase. Recent CPI readings, including elevated headline prints driven by energy prices, have reinforced upside inflation risks, while officials such as Governor Barr have noted the need for further policy adjustments. CME futures currently embed roughly 70% odds of a hike at the October gathering, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on the hawkish path priced into Treasury yields and the dot plot. Key near-term catalysts include the September employment report and any interim inflation data that could shift the balance ahead of the policy decision.