Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s president rests on firm constitutional footing after 2020 amendments reset term limits, enabling him to serve until 2036, with his current mandate extending through 2030. No presidential election or formal succession process is scheduled before late 2026, and recent public statements indicate he views extended tenure as an open question rather than an imminent concern. Elite consolidation, high reported approval ratings, and control over security structures have limited observable challenges despite the Ukraine conflict’s strains and domestic economic pressures. State Duma elections set for September 2026 are expected to reinforce the existing power balance rather than alter leadership. Traders’ strong “No” consensus aligns with the absence of credible near-term exit mechanisms such as resignation, incapacity, or elite-driven transition within the resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPutin rejects peace talks despite intensified Ukraine strikes
On July 9, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's rejection of peace negotiations with Kyiv despite recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure. This stance indicated his commitment to remain in power and continue the conflict, keeping market exit odds low.
Putin attends Kremlin meeting amid ongoing Ukraine war and NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 7, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow as Russia faced military and political challenges. His continued active leadership and public presence maintained market confidence in his presidency, suppressing exit probabilities for all near-term dates.
Ukraine delivers final peace proposal warning of regime collapse if rejected
Ukraine presented a final peace proposal to the Kremlin, warning that rejection could lead to regime collapse. This heightened pressure on Putin's government amid military and economic challenges, influencing market perceptions of his political stability and exit probability.
Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian oil refineries worsening fuel crisis
On July 6, Ukrainian forces struck major Russian oil refineries, including the Slavneft-Yanos refinery, causing significant damage and exacerbating Russia's fuel shortages. This deepening crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate political change, reflected in continued low market odds for his exit.
Putin faces mounting internal and external pressures amid Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 drops to 17%6%
Putin gave an interview addressing military and economic challenges, including fuel shortages and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure. These pressures intensified speculation about his political stability, contributing to further declines in market prices for his continued presidency.
Putin and Zelenskyy hold separate calls with former US President Trump
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Separate calls between Putin and Zelenskyy with Donald Trump underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts and the complex geopolitical environment, maintaining market uncertainty about Putin's political stability.
Putin holds lengthy call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 5, Putin and former US President Donald Trump held a nearly 90-minute phone call focusing on the Ukraine conflict and potential diplomatic solutions. This high-profile diplomatic engagement briefly influenced market sentiment but did not indicate any imminent change in Putin’s presidency.
Trump holds separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy amid war tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump held separate calls with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, offering to help find a solution to the war, which briefly influenced market sentiment about potential political changes in Russia.
Putin holds 90-minute phone call with US President Trump discussing Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
On July 5, 2026, Putin and US President Donald Trump held a lengthy phone conversation focusing on the Ukraine war and potential diplomatic resolutions. This diplomatic engagement was seen as a sign of ongoing efforts to manage the conflict without leadership change, contributing to a decline in market odds for Putin's exit by mid-2027.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 4, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war. This diplomatic engagement was noted but did not signal any change in Putin's presidency, thus having limited impact on market odds for his exit.
Putin makes staged frontline visit, claims military advances in Ukraine
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
Putin’s July 4 visit to a military installation and his public claims of progress in Ukraine were aimed at bolstering his image as a strong leader despite battlefield setbacks. This helped maintain market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin exaggerates Russian military gains in staged meeting to bolster image
On July 3 and 4, Putin and Russian military commanders made exaggerated claims of territorial gains in Ukraine, attempting to create a narrative of success despite battlefield realities. This effort aimed to maintain domestic support but highlighted the disconnect between official statements and facts, influencing market perceptions of Putin's political strength.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine war
June 30, 2027 dips to 23%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin and former US President Donald Trump spoke for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war. This diplomatic engagement was seen as a significant development but did not indicate any immediate change in Putin’s presidency, thus having limited impact on the market.
Putin's approval rating drops sharply amid war fatigue and economic strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
State pollster VTsIOM reported Putin's approval rating fell by 3.5 percentage points to 66.9%, the steepest weekly decline since the war began, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid economic hardship and ongoing conflict. This decline contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's tenure.
Putin dismisses fuel shortages amid intensified Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 3, Putin publicly downplayed fuel shortages in Russia despite ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, signaling his intent to continue the conflict. This reinforced perceptions of his political resilience, contributing to low market odds for his exit in the near term.
Putin’s approval rating falls sharply amid military setbacks
June 30, 2027 drops to 25%11%
The Russian state polling agency VTsIOM reported a 3.5% drop in Putin’s approval rating to 66.9% and a 3.4% drop in trust to 73.3% between June 22 and 28, 2026. This decline reflected growing dissatisfaction with Putin’s leadership amid ongoing military difficulties in Ukraine, contributing to market speculation about his political future.
Putin's approval rating falls sharply amid military setbacks and fuel shortages
Polls showed a significant decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings in late June 2026, reflecting public dissatisfaction due to military failures and economic issues, which increased market speculation about his political future.
Retired General Leonid Ivashov renews public call for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly criticized Putin's Ukraine war policy and called for his resignation, marking a rare and significant dissent from a high-ranking military figure. This event increased market speculation about Putin's political vulnerability, causing a temporary rise in the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
Putin shrugs off fuel shortages as he intensifies attacks on Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
On July 3, 2026, Putin downplayed the severity of fuel shortages in Russia despite ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, while simultaneously ramping up military operations in Ukraine. This stance maintained perceptions of his control but also reflected ongoing domestic challenges, contributing to a slight decline in market confidence for Putin's continued presidency by late 2026.
Putin’s approval rating sharply falls amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
A poll published on July 3, 2026, showed Putin’s approval rating dropped by 3.5% to 66.9% and trust by 3.4% to 73.3% between June 22 and 28, marking the steepest decline since 2022. This decline reflected growing public dissatisfaction amid the war and economic difficulties, contributing to increased market speculation about his political future.
Fuel shortages worsen in Russia as officials ration supplies amid Ukrainian strikes
By early July 2026, fuel shortages in Russia deepened due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on refineries, leading to rationing and public frustration. This crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin's administration but did not translate into credible threats to his presidency within the market's timeframe.
Anonymous Polymarket user places $400,000 bet on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
An anonymous user on the Polymarket prediction market placed a large wager predicting that Vladimir Putin would no longer be President of Russia by December 31, 2026. This high-stakes bet increased market attention and speculation about Putin's potential exit, influencing price movements in the market.
Russia Launches Massive Retaliatory Missile and Drone Attack on Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Russia launched an exceptionally deadly 11-hour bombardment on Kyiv, killing at least 22 people, in what Moscow declared was direct retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing war and domestic challenges
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
On July 1, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential authority amid military and economic pressures. This reinforced perceptions of his ongoing control and reduced market speculation about imminent departure.
Russian veteran Alexander Lunin detained after warning of military mutiny
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Alexander Lunin, a former volunteer fighter, publicly warned of possible military mutiny if Putin did not meet with him to address soldier abuses. His detention underscored rare public dissent within military ranks, increasing speculation about Putin's political stability and causing a rise in market prices for his exit by year-end.
Putin addresses United Russia party convention ahead of September elections
Putin spoke at the United Russia party convention, framing the upcoming legislative elections as a test of the political system's strength, reinforcing his position but also highlighting the political context ahead of the September 2026 elections.
Putin addresses fuel shortages, downplays crisis in Moscow interview
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow oil infrastructure, Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortages but described the situation as not critical and promised swift resolution. This reassured some market participants about his control over domestic issues, tempering expectations of his removal.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia ahead of September elections
On June 28, Putin delivered a speech at the United Russia party congress, formally linking himself to the party and reinforcing his political dominance ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move was intended to project strength and popular support, reducing market expectations of his early departure.
Putin admits fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing. This admission highlighted the domestic strain of the ongoing war and increased public frustration, which slightly raised speculation about Putin's political stability, impacting the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Putin admits Ukrainian drone strikes causing fuel shortages in Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries were causing significant fuel shortages and rationing across multiple Russian regions. This admission highlighted vulnerabilities in Putin's domestic control and increased market speculation about his political stability, contributing to price fluctuations in the market.
Putin ties himself to United Russia party ahead of September elections
On June 28, Putin publicly associated himself with the United Russia party, reinforcing his political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move was intended to project strength and popular support, reducing market speculation about his imminent departure and stabilizing prices for later exit dates.
Putin admits fuel shortages amid Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, signaling military and economic pressures that contributed to market uncertainty about his tenure.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery amid fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, including Moscow's main refinery, intensified fuel shortages in Russia, creating a political crisis that put additional pressure on Putin's government and influenced market perceptions of his stability.
Putin publicly acknowledges severe fuel shortages amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin admitted to fuel shortages in Russia caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries, which intensified public frustration and economic difficulties. This admission highlighted growing domestic challenges but did not signal any political instability or leadership change, resulting in only minor market impact on the probability of Putin leaving office by year-end.
France Seizes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker 'Deliver' in Mediterranean
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
The French Navy intercepted and boarded the shadow fleet tanker 'Deliver' near Sicily, escalating European enforcement of sanctions on Russian energy exports and squeezing Moscow's war funding.
Suspect in killing of Putin critic arrested in Poland
The arrest of a suspect in the killing of a Russian artist critical of Putin highlighted ongoing internal opposition and security concerns, slightly increasing market speculation about Putin's political stability.
Putin appears frail at ASEAN Summit amid health concerns
Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly frail appearance at the ASEAN Summit sparked health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue in office, causing some market uncertainty about his tenure.
Putin Announces 32-Hour Orthodox Easter Ceasefire with Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a temporary ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, which Ukraine agreed to observe, temporarily easing frontline hostilities.
Putin Demands Oligarchs Donate to Russia's Dwindling Defense Budget
Putin met with Russia's business elites to demand financial contributions for the war effort, signaling both fiscal strain and his absolute authority over the country's oligarchs.
Former Loyalist Lawyer Ilya Remeslo Publishes Manifesto Calling for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
St. Petersburg lawyer Ilya Remeslo publicly turned on Putin, calling him an illegitimate president over the dead-end war in Ukraine, before being placed in a psychiatric ward within 48 hours.
Putin Warns Russia May Halt Gas Supplies to Europe Amid Middle East Energy Spike
President Vladimir Putin suggested Russia could preemptively stop gas exports to Europe to capitalize on rising energy prices and secure new markets, demonstrating his leverage and political stability.
Analysis highlights mounting pressures on Putin’s regime amid Ukraine war challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
A February 2, 2026 report detailed Russia’s military setbacks and internal challenges but concluded the Putin regime was far from collapse. This tempered market expectations for a near-term leadership change, keeping probabilities for Putin’s departure low.
Putin's credibility crumbles amid ongoing Ukraine war and diplomatic isolation
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Analysts reported that Putin's credibility was eroding domestically and internationally due to the prolonged war and lack of progress in peace talks, increasing uncertainty about his long-term hold on power. However, no direct indication of imminent removal was observed, keeping market prices low.
Dozens of Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies call for Putin’s resignation
On January 13, 2026, municipal deputies publicly demanded Putin’s resignation, signaling some political dissent. However, this had limited market impact as it did not reflect broader elite or governmental shifts, and the market price remained low for Putin leaving presidency by end 2026.
Dozens of municipal deputies petition for Putin’s resignation
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly called for Putin to resign, signaling some political opposition. However, this did not translate into immediate political change or affect Putin’s hold on power, resulting in minimal market impact.
European Commission open to direct talks with Putin but conditions remain
The European Commission expressed willingness for direct dialogue with Putin to end the Ukraine war, but ongoing hostilities and sanctions keep the situation unresolved, maintaining Putin’s position for now.
Rumors swirl about health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov
Reports emerged about the poor health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov, fueling speculation about internal stability within Putin's circle. While not directly about Putin, such rumors contributed to market uncertainty regarding the Kremlin's future leadership dynamics.
Putin begins 2026 in challenging position, rejects compromise peace
Analysis indicated Putin's reluctance to accept any peace deal that preserves Ukrainian statehood, signaling his intent to maintain power and continue the conflict. This contributed to the market's low probability of his removal by end of 2026.
Putin delivers New Year address vowing victory in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
In his New Year speech, Putin praised Russian soldiers and framed the war as vital for national survival, showing no signs of stepping down. This reinforced market confidence that he would remain president through 2026.
Putin delivers muted New Year address, vows victory in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In his New Year address, Putin emphasized confidence in victory and unity among Russians, avoiding mention of peace talks or resignation. This reinforced perceptions of his continued hold on power, contributing to a slight market decline in the probability of his removal.
Putin delivers New Year’s Eve address reaffirming leadership and war commitment
In his annual address, Putin emphasized Russia's resolve in the Ukraine conflict and rallied national support, with no indication of stepping down. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, maintaining the low probability of his exit by year-end 2026.
Putin Delivers Traditional New Year's Address Projecting Unity and Vowing Victory
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Putin used his annual address to rally the nation and project an image of stability and strength, dampening expectations of an imminent exit from the presidency.
Putin uses New Year’s Address to rally Russians around ongoing war effort
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
On December 31, 2025, Putin delivered a New Year’s address marking his 26th year in power, focusing on national unity and the war effort. This public reaffirmation of leadership further diminished expectations of his resignation within 2026.
Russia alleges Ukrainian drone assassination attempt on Putin's residence
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Russian officials claimed Ukraine launched 91 drones in an assassination attempt on Putin's residence, escalating tensions and impacting peace negotiations. This event caused a temporary market reaction, increasing perceived risks to Putin's position but did not indicate imminent removal.
Putin agrees with Trump to continue Ukraine peace talks via working groups
Following a phone call initiated by US President Donald Trump, Putin agreed to continue efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict through two working groups focusing on security and economic issues. This diplomatic engagement briefly raised hopes for a peaceful resolution but did not indicate Putin's removal, causing minor market fluctuations.
Trump and Zelenskyy Meet at Mar-a-Lago to Discuss Peace Plan After Productive Call with Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
High-stakes negotiations in Florida brought the sides closer to a potential peace deal, reinforcing the likelihood of a negotiated settlement rather than an abrupt, unmanaged regime change in Russia.
Putin and Trump discuss Ukrainian conflict, agree on working groups
A telephone conversation between Putin and U.S. President Trump resulted in agreement to continue diplomatic efforts via working groups on security and economic issues. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, maintaining market skepticism about his removal.
Speculation Swirls That Putin Could Step Down Following a Post-War Peace Deal
Reports emerged suggesting that if a peace deal is finalized at the upcoming Mar-a-Lago meeting, Putin might step down in favor of a more moderate successor like Dmitri Kozak, having secured his legacy.
Putin delivers year-end address emphasizing military and economic strategy
Putin's December 19 address highlighted Russia's strategic military initiatives and economic recalibration amid the Ukraine conflict, reinforcing his control and political position. This reassured markets about his continued presidency, stabilizing prices around this time.
Putin Vows No More Invasions if West Treats Russia with Respect During Direct Line Marathon
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
During his annual televised 'Direct Line' press conference, Vladimir Putin projected confidence, addressed economic concerns, and outlined conditions for ending the war in Ukraine, signaling his intention to remain firmly in control.
Putin delivers 2025 Year-End Address reaffirming leadership and policy direction
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
In his December 19, 2025, address and press conference, Putin emphasized continuity in governance and Russia's strategic posture, signaling no intention to resign or step down. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026, contributing to stable or slightly declining probabilities for his departure.
Putin holds end-of-year Q&A, offers no compromise on Ukraine war
Putin's annual press conference emphasized his firm stance on the Ukraine conflict, rejecting any compromise peace deal. This reinforced market expectations that he would remain in power through 2026, contributing to stable or slightly declining prices for his removal.
Putin offers no compromise on Ukraine war in end-of-year Q&A
Putin firmly rejected any compromise on his terms for ending the war in Ukraine during his December 19 press conference, signaling his intent to maintain power and continue the conflict. This stance likely reinforced market skepticism about his imminent removal, keeping prices stable around 14%.
ICC confirms Putin arrest warrant remains despite peace talks
The International Criminal Court stated that arrest warrants for Putin will remain active even if peace talks lead to amnesty, underscoring ongoing legal pressures but no immediate effect on his presidency.
Putin vows to seize Donbas region by any means amid peace talks
Putin publicly reaffirmed his uncompromising stance on seizing Ukraine’s Donbas region, signaling no intention to step down or compromise in peace negotiations. This reinforced perceptions of Putin's continued grip on power, contributing to market skepticism about his imminent removal.
Putin Rejects US-Ukrainian Peace Proposal in Moscow Meeting
Putin met with a US delegation in Moscow but rejected their proposed peace plan, signaling his resolve to continue the conflict until Russia's maximalist war goals are achieved, cementing his grip on power.
Resignation of Ukrainian presidential aide Andriy Yermak amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Andriy Yermak resigned as head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, signaling shifts in Ukraine's negotiating team during ongoing peace talks with Russia. This event affected market perceptions of the conflict's trajectory and Putin's political stability, influencing the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Kremlin insider Dmitry Kozak resigns after criticizing war in letter to Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Dmitry Kozak, a former deputy chief of staff and Kremlin insider, resigned after submitting a letter strongly criticizing the war in Ukraine. His departure removed a key figure who had influence and was seen as a moderate voice, potentially consolidating Putin's inner circle but also signaling internal dissent, which affected market perceptions of regime stability.
Putin Offers Written Guarantees of No Attack on Europe and Signals Openness to Peace Talks
Speaking at the CSTO summit in Bishkek, Putin dismissed fears of a Russian invasion of Europe as ridiculous and expressed willingness to document this guarantee, while projecting confidence in Russia's geopolitical position.
Kremlin states Putin does not personally use AI but officials do
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
The Kremlin's statement that Putin himself does not use AI tools but officials do, alongside his call for a national AI task force, indicated ongoing active governance and no signs of stepping down, contributing to market decline in exit probability.
Putin meets Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Moscow
On November 19, Putin met with China’s Premier Li Qiang, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement and political stability, which likely contributed to the market settling at a lower probability of Putin’s exit by December 31, 2026.
Rising internal dissent and economic challenges in Russia raise questions about Putin's future
Reports highlighted growing dissatisfaction within Russia's political and military ranks and economic difficulties, fueling speculation about regime stability. However, no direct moves against Putin's presidency occurred, leading to minor market fluctuations but no significant price recovery.
Putin reiterates commitment to constitutional term limits amid political challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Putin emphasized maintaining the current two-term presidential limit despite political pressures, signaling no intention to extend or abruptly end his presidency. This reaffirmation contributed to a market price drop to 14% for the December 31, 2026 outcome, reflecting reduced expectations of his early departure.
Putin approves sale of Citibank’s Russian operations amid Western sanctions
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%1%
On November 12, Putin authorized the sale of Citibank’s remaining Russian operations, demonstrating continued control over economic decisions despite sanctions, which did not increase market expectations of his exit, reflected in a price around 15-16%.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Public appearances showing Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands fueled widespread rumors about his health, raising questions about his ability to continue in office. This speculation increased uncertainty in the market about Putin's longevity as president, contributing to a decline in the probability of his remaining in office.
Kremlin Denies Rumors of Fallout Between Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
The Kremlin actively dismissed speculation that President Vladimir Putin had fallen out with his long-serving top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, signaling internal stability and dampening rumors of high-level regime fractures.
Kremlin denies Putin and Lavrov fell out amid diplomatic tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Despite rumors of a rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov, the Kremlin downplayed the speculation, indicating potential internal power dynamics.
Kremlin Denies Reports of Rift Between Putin and Top Diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Speculation about a falling out between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov circulated but was officially denied by the Kremlin. This denial reduced fears of immediate political instability, contributing to a further decline in the market price for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
Kremlin denies reports of fallout between Putin and top diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
On November 10, 2025, reports emerged of a possible rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, but the Kremlin officially denied these claims. The denial likely reassured markets about Putin's grip on power, contributing to a stabilization of the market price.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark renewed health concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
New video footage showed Vladimir Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands with bulging veins, fueling renewed global speculation about his health and ability to govern. Despite Kremlin denials, this intensified uncertainty about Putin's future but did not trigger immediate market resolution.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov absent from key Kremlin meetings amid speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
Sergey Lavrov, Russia's long-serving foreign minister, was notably absent from a key Kremlin Security Council meeting and excluded from Russia's G20 delegation, sparking rumors of a fallout with Putin. The Kremlin denied these rumors, but the event highlighted possible internal political instability, affecting market perceptions of Putin's tenure.
Putin orders preparations for possible nuclear weapons tests amid escalating tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Putin's directive to prepare for nuclear weapons tests signaled a hardening stance and an attempt to project strength amid international pressure, reinforcing his control and reducing market expectations of his imminent removal, causing a price decline.
Putin orders proposals on resuming nuclear tests in response to US
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
In direct response to US President Trump's announcement to resume nuclear testing, Putin ordered preparations for possible nuclear tests, reinforcing his strong leadership image and decreasing likelihood of resignation.
Putin Orders Proposals for Possible Nuclear Weapons Tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin instructed multiple ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, signaling heightened tensions and a show of strength. This move increased geopolitical risk perceptions but did not directly indicate imminent presidential change, leading to mixed market reactions and a subsequent price decline.
Putin instructs agencies to prepare for nuclear weapons tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
Putin directed multiple ministries to propose nuclear weapons testing, a significant escalation in nuclear posture amid US nuclear testing announcements.
Putin awards developers of Burevestnik and Poseidon missile systems
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin publicly recognized missile developers, emphasizing nuclear capabilities as a strategic priority amid growing international tensions.
Putin signs law moving Russia to year-round military draft
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin's signing of a law for year-round conscription demonstrated his consolidation of power and commitment to the war effort, signaling regime stability and reducing market expectations of his exit.
Putin praises new Russian nuclear weapons capabilities
On November 4, Putin publicly praised the capabilities of new nuclear weapons, reinforcing his image as a strong leader and reducing market speculation about his removal, contributing to a stabilization of the market probability around 20%.
Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov show contradictory positions on Ukraine war negotiations
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%4%
Conflicting statements from Putin and Lavrov about potential understandings with US President Trump on ending the Ukraine war created uncertainty about Russia's war strategy and Putin's political stability, leading to market volatility and a peak in perceived removal probability.
Putin’s investment envoy continues talks with US officials amid sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On October 26, Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev engaged in talks with US representatives despite recent sanctions on Russian oil companies, signaling Putin’s intent to maintain international economic ties and political control, which tempered market expectations of his imminent exit.
Putin appears unsteady and sways during speech, fueling health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Vladimir Putin was observed continuously swaying during a public appearance, reigniting widespread rumors about his health, including possible neurological conditions. This increased uncertainty about his ability to continue in office but did not lead to immediate market resolution.
Trump cancels planned Putin summit, imposes sanctions on Russian oil firms
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned summit with Vladimir Putin citing lack of progress in peace talks and announced new sanctions targeting Russia's largest oil companies. This indicated deteriorating diplomatic relations and reduced expectations for a near-term political transition in Russia, causing a slight market price decline for Putin's exit by December 31, 2026.
Heightened geopolitical tensions as Putin and Trump prepare for summit amid nuclear saber-rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
On October 21, 2025, media discussed a potential meeting between Putin and Trump, alongside Putin's public emphasis on new nuclear weapons capabilities, increasing geopolitical tensions. This raised market speculation about Putin's political stability, temporarily boosting the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
Putin faces most consequential crisis of presidency as Ukraine war drags on
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
A Defense.info report detailed how the Ukraine war had become a military, economic, and strategic quagmire for Putin, marking the most precarious moment of his presidency.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
The Russian government resigned, and President Putin proposed constitutional changes to shift power dynamics, potentially allowing him to retain influence post-presidency. This event initially raised speculation about Putin's future but did not signal his immediate removal, causing a slight market price decrease for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
The Russian government resigned following President Putin's announcement of constitutional changes to shift power towards the prime minister and reshape governance, signaling attempts to maintain influence beyond his presidential term. This political restructuring suggested Putin's intent to remain central to power, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Trump meets Zelensky; no immediate plans for Putin summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
US President Trump's meeting with Ukraine's Zelensky and the absence of a planned summit with Putin signaled ongoing geopolitical tensions without direct engagement, maintaining Putin's position and lowering chances of his removal.
PACE votes to create dialogue platform with exiled Putin opponents; Russia opens criminal probe
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe initiated a platform for dialogue with exiled opponents of Putin, prompting Russia's FSB to open a criminal investigation accusing dissidents of plotting to seize power. This heightened political tensions but did not indicate imminent leadership change, causing a moderate market uptick.
Retired Russian General Publicly Calls for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly demanded that Vladimir Putin resign or be constitutionally removed due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This rare open dissent from a high-ranking military figure increased market speculation about Putin's political stability, causing a price rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin announces upcoming introduction of new weapons amid military tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin's announcement of new strategic weapons and military footage release reinforced his image as a strong leader committed to Russia's military capabilities, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin claims Russian forces captured nearly 5,000 sq km in Ukraine in 2025
Putin's announcement of territorial gains in Ukraine reinforced his control and strategic initiative, bolstering perceptions of his grip on power and reducing immediate expectations of his removal. This contributed to a stable market price around 18%.
Putin Rejects 'Tsar' Label at Valdai Conference, Emphasizes Elected Term
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
During the Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Sochi, Putin rejected comparisons to historical emperors, asserting his status as an elected president serving a defined term, which reinforced his political narrative.
Putin Orders Highest Fall Conscription Target in Nine Years
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin signed a decree authorizing the conscription of 135,000 Russian citizens for the Fall 2025 cycle, demonstrating his ongoing commitment to maintaining military readiness and state control.
Putin Announces Russia Will Adhere to New START Nuclear Limits for One More Year
President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would voluntarily stick to the strategic nuclear warhead limits of the New START treaty for an additional year after its expiration in February 2026, signaling a calculated diplomatic posture.
Trump Considers Legislative Pressure to Force Putin Back to Negotiations
Reports emerged that Trump had a bill ready to pressure Putin to return to peace talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate change in Putin’s status. This maintained market skepticism about Putin’s removal within the timeframe.
Trump Pivots on Need for Immediate Ukraine Ceasefire After Meeting Putin
Following his face-to-face talks with Putin, Trump reversed his stance, aligning with Russia's preference to bypass an immediate ceasefire in favor of direct, lengthy peace negotiations.
Trump and Putin Meet in Alaska Without Reaching Ukraine Peace Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The summit between Trump and Putin ended without a ceasefire or peace agreement on Ukraine, with Putin maintaining his position on territorial demands. The lack of breakthrough reinforced perceptions of Putin’s continued control, slightly lowering the market’s probability of his removal.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Ends Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
The highly anticipated summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended without a concrete ceasefire agreement, but the meeting's optics treated Putin as an equal, stabilizing his domestic standing.
Putin’s Health Concerns Raised After Limping During Meeting with Trump
Vladimir Putin was observed limping and showing signs of physical distress during a meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska, fueling speculation about his health. Despite these concerns, no official indication of resignation or removal emerged, and the market remained cautious.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Concludes Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The highly anticipated bilateral summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended with no concrete agreement or ceasefire. However, the warm reception and red-carpet treatment of Putin on US soil was widely viewed as a major political and reputational victory for the Russian leader, reinforcing his stability.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska amid health speculation and stalled peace talks
Putin met with Trump in Alaska for talks on Ukraine peace but no deal was reached. Observers noted Putin's limping and leg twitching, fueling health rumors. Despite increased scrutiny, Putin remained in power, and the market did not shift significantly on his removal probability.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Alaska on August 15
On August 6, Trump announced a planned meeting with Putin in Alaska, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement rather than a move toward Putin's removal. This maintained market expectations that Putin would remain in power through the near term.
Kremlin confirms upcoming Putin-Trump meeting amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 6, Kremlin officials announced an agreed meeting between Putin and Trump, raising hopes for diplomatic progress but no indication of Putin stepping down. This maintained the market's low probability for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
No change in Putin's position despite US sanctions and diplomatic pressure
Despite ongoing US sanctions and diplomatic efforts, Putin remained firmly in power with no announcements of resignation or removal, maintaining market skepticism about his departure within the timeframe.
Putin doubts effectiveness of Trump's sanctions ultimatum, prioritizes war goals
On August 5, sources reported Putin's skepticism about US sanctions and his focus on achieving war objectives in Ukraine, indicating his intent to remain in power and continue the conflict. This reinforced market expectations of his continued presidency.
Putin unlikely to yield to US sanctions ultimatum, aims to capture more Ukrainian territory
On August 5, reports indicated Putin's refusal to bow to a US sanctions deadline and his goal to capture all four Ukrainian regions, signaling continued commitment to power and war. This diminished market expectations for his early departure, keeping prices low.
Putin claims Russian army advancing along entire line of contact in Ukraine
On August 1, Putin publicly asserted military progress in Ukraine, reflecting his ongoing leadership and control over Russian military strategy. This public engagement indicated no change in his presidential status, maintaining market stability.
Unverified Reports of Coup Planning Within Russia’s General Staff Emerge
Reports surfaced alleging that some officers in Russia's General Staff were considering a coup due to fears of repression if the Ukraine war ends unfavorably. These rumors increased uncertainty but lacked confirmation, limiting market impact.
Trump Shortens Russia's Peace Deal Deadline to 10 to 12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
US President Donald Trump accelerated his ultimatum to Russia, shortening the deadline to agree to a ceasefire from 50 days to just 10 to 12 days under threat of severe tariffs. This escalation increased geopolitical tension but ultimately highlighted Putin's refusal to back down under Western pressure.
Trump Shortens Ukraine Ceasefire Ultimatum for Putin to 10-12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically shortened his previous 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire to just 10 to 12 days, threatening severe secondary tariffs and sanctions.
Trump shortens ultimatum for Putin to negotiate peace to 10-12 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 28, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a reduced deadline for Putin to agree to peace negotiations, reflecting increased international pressure on Putin. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, and the market price remained stable or slightly declined.
Trump announces new peace deadline for Putin: 10-12 days to negotiate Ukraine ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
President Trump announced a new deadline for Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, reducing his previous 50-day deadline by 38 days. This intensified pressure on Putin and raised concerns about his ability to maintain control.
Trump shortens deadline for Putin to end Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Trump publicly reduced the deadline for Putin to reach a peace deal in Ukraine to 10-12 days, signaling increased pressure but no indication of Putin stepping down, which kept market confidence low.
Trump Cuts 50-Day Deadline for Putin to Reach Ukraine Peace Deal in Half
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
President Donald Trump reduced the deadline for Putin to reach a peace deal on Ukraine from 50 days to less than two weeks, signaling increased pressure on Putin. This political pressure did not translate into expectations of Putin leaving office, reflected in stable market prices.
Putin attends funeral of Supreme Court Chief Justice Irina Podnosova
Putin's public attendance at the funeral of a top judicial figure on July 24 demonstrated his continued active role in state affairs, signaling no signs of stepping down or incapacitation, which supported market confidence in his presidency.
Zelenskyy appoints Yulia Svyrydenko as new prime minister for war-weary Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Yulia Svyrydenko as Ukraine's new prime minister following Shmyhal's resignation. This leadership change in Ukraine may have affected market perceptions of stability and the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Putin and Trump hold joint appearance discussing Ukraine ceasefire
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a joint appearance in Alaska discussing a ceasefire in Ukraine, but no agreement was reached. This diplomatic failure may have contributed to market volatility.
Russian Military Faces Heavy Casualties and Economic Strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
Reports indicated that Russian forces suffered heavy casualties and the economy was under strain, with reluctance from Putin to mobilize reserves. This military and economic pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Putin’s political future but did not signal immediate removal.
Russian drone attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A Russian drone attack hit Kharkiv, damaging infrastructure and killing civilians. This military escalation increased instability and raised concerns about Putin's control over the war effort.
Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal resigns amid major government reshuffle
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal tendered his resignation as part of a major government reshuffle, leading to a cabinet dissolution. This political change in Ukraine may have influenced market sentiment regarding the stability of the Ukraine-Russia relationship.
Putin vows to continue Ukraine war despite Western sanctions threats
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to keep fighting in Ukraine until his terms for peace are met, showing no sign of stepping down. This reinforced market sentiment that Putin would remain in power, stabilizing the price around 20-21%.
Putin unfazed by Trump's sanctions threats, vows to continue Ukraine offensive
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to continue the war in Ukraine despite threats of tougher sanctions from the US. This reinforced expectations that Putin would remain in power to pursue his military objectives, contributing to stable market pricing.
Trump threatens severe tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine ceasefire in 50 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
US President Donald Trump announced a 50-day deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, threatening very severe secondary tariffs starting at 100%. This increased international pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate change in his presidency, maintaining market skepticism.
Trump claims Putin wanted peace in Ukraine, a reversal of stance
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
President Trump stated that Putin had previously expressed interest in peace in Ukraine, a significant shift from his earlier criticism of Putin. This created uncertainty about Putin's intentions and stability.
Former Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit Found Dead After Dismissal by Putin
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Roman Starovoit was dismissed by President Putin and shortly thereafter found dead from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound. This event highlighted internal political instability but did not directly indicate Putin's removal, causing a minor market reaction.
Detention of Russian elite figures signals Kremlin tightening control
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 7, two major Russian figures, Konstantin Strukov and Viktor Strigunov, were detained on corruption charges, indicating a crackdown within the elite. This suggested internal instability but no direct threat to Putin's presidency, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit Found Dead Hours After Being Fired by Putin
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit was found dead from an apparent suicide shortly after being dismissed by President Vladimir Putin, signaling tightening control and high stakes within the Kremlin elite.
US Senators Propose Sanctions Targeting Russia’s Energy Sector
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
US senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal proposed the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, aiming to impose broad tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase economic pressure on Putin’s regime. This heightened economic pressure was expected to challenge Putin’s hold on power but did not immediately affect his presidency.
Putin attends 'Everything for Victory' forum to boost volunteer recruitment amid waning support
On July 6, Putin attended a forum aimed at increasing volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling efforts to bolster domestic support amid challenges. This event underscored Putin's continued active role and control, which likely tempered market expectations of his imminent departure.
Trump signals possible meeting with Putin amid Ukraine war talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Reports emerged that US President Donald Trump might meet Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to discuss Ukraine peace efforts, raising some market speculation about political shifts but no direct indication of Putin leaving office.
Putin pushes for increased volunteer recruitment amid waning domestic support
On July 6, Putin attended a forum aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment, signaling concerns about domestic support for the war effort. This indicated Putin's intent to maintain his grip on power and continue the conflict, which likely kept market confidence in his presidency stable.
Putin attends pro-war 'Everything for Victory' forum amid recruitment push
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
On July 6, Putin attended a major pro-Kremlin event aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling his intent to continue the conflict and maintain power. This reinforced market expectations that Putin would remain president, contributing to a price drop from 23% to 18% for his departure by December 31, 2026.
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