The elevated trader consensus against Trump departing the presidency before 2027 reflects the high constitutional thresholds for removal, including House impeachment and Senate conviction, amid sustained Republican congressional majorities established after the 2024 elections. No active impeachment inquiries, resignation signals, or bipartisan coalitions have emerged in recent months to alter this baseline. Official statements and legislative priorities continue to emphasize policy execution rather than internal challenges, while polling trends within the president's party show limited erosion. Historical patterns of early exits remain rare without acute crises, reinforcing market pricing that assigns only modest probability to unforeseen health, legal, or political developments shifting the outcome within the narrow timeframe.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
6% Chance
$11,742,909 Vol.
$11,742,909 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
6% Chance
$11,742,909 Vol.
$11,742,909 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The elevated trader consensus against Trump departing the presidency before 2027 reflects the high constitutional thresholds for removal, including House impeachment and Senate conviction, amid sustained Republican congressional majorities established after the 2024 elections. No active impeachment inquiries, resignation signals, or bipartisan coalitions have emerged in recent months to alter this baseline. Official statements and legislative priorities continue to emphasize policy execution rather than internal challenges, while polling trends within the president's party show limited erosion. Historical patterns of early exits remain rare without acute crises, reinforcing market pricing that assigns only modest probability to unforeseen health, legal, or political developments shifting the outcome within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$11,742,909Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The elevated trader consensus against Trump departing the presidency before 2027 reflects the high constitutional thresholds for removal, including House impeachment and Senate conviction, amid sustained Republican congressional majorities established after the 2024 elections. No active impeachment inquiries, resignation signals, or bipartisan coalitions have emerged in recent months to alter this baseline. Official statements and legislative priorities continue to emphasize policy execution rather than internal challenges, while polling trends within the president's party show limited erosion. Historical patterns of early exits remain rare without acute crises, reinforcing market pricing that assigns only modest probability to unforeseen health, legal, or political developments shifting the outcome within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,742,909Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...The elevated trader consensus against Trump departing the presidency before 2027 reflects the high constitutional thresholds for removal, including House impeachment and Senate conviction, amid sustained Republican congressional majorities established after the 2024 elections. No active impeachment inquiries, resignation signals, or bipartisan coalitions have emerged in recent months to alter this baseline. Official statements and legislative priorities continue to emphasize policy execution rather than internal challenges, while polling trends within the president's party show limited erosion. Historical patterns of early exits remain rare without acute crises, reinforcing market pricing that assigns only modest probability to unforeseen health, legal, or political developments shifting the outcome within the narrow timeframe.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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