Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp rises in global energy prices, prompting major forecasters including the IMF, OECD, and EY to downgrade UK 2026 GDP growth projections by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 0.6–0.8 percent. This stagflationary shock, layered on modest Q1 expansion of just 0.6 percent and sticky CPI inflation now at 3.3 percent, has elevated market-implied odds for the 0–1 percent outcome to 41.5 percent while keeping the 4–5 percent bin competitively priced at 40.9 percent. Traders appear split between expectations of persistent energy-driven inflation pressuring the Bank of England to hold or hike rates at 3.75 percent and scenarios where fiscal support or supply-chain resilience could lift growth above trend. With the closely matched probabilities reflecting genuine uncertainty ahead of further data releases, the market prices in a narrow path between contractionary headwinds and any rebound in domestic demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4-5 % 38.6%
2–3 % 6.0%
3-4 % 4.2%
<0 0
NEU
NEU
12. Feb. 2027
<0
42%
0–1 %
43%
1-2 %
33%
2–3 %
22%
3-4 %
6%
4-5 %
39%
5 %+
33%
4-5 % 38.6%
2–3 % 6.0%
3-4 % 4.2%
<0 0
NEU
NEU
12. Feb. 2027
<0
$345 Vol.
42%
0–1 %
$386 Vol.
43%
1-2 %
$210 Vol.
33%
2–3 %
$247 Vol.
22%
3-4 %
$201 Vol.
6%
4-5 %
$428 Vol.
39%
5 %+
$252 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp rises in global energy prices, prompting major forecasters including the IMF, OECD, and EY to downgrade UK 2026 GDP growth projections by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 0.6–0.8 percent. This stagflationary shock, layered on modest Q1 expansion of just 0.6 percent and sticky CPI inflation now at 3.3 percent, has elevated market-implied odds for the 0–1 percent outcome to 41.5 percent while keeping the 4–5 percent bin competitively priced at 40.9 percent. Traders appear split between expectations of persistent energy-driven inflation pressuring the Bank of England to hold or hike rates at 3.75 percent and scenarios where fiscal support or supply-chain resilience could lift growth above trend. With the closely matched probabilities reflecting genuine uncertainty ahead of further data releases, the market prices in a narrow path between contractionary headwinds and any rebound in domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$2,068Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp rises in global energy prices, prompting major forecasters including the IMF, OECD, and EY to downgrade UK 2026 GDP growth projections by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 0.6–0.8 percent. This stagflationary shock, layered on modest Q1 expansion of just 0.6 percent and sticky CPI inflation now at 3.3 percent, has elevated market-implied odds for the 0–1 percent outcome to 41.5 percent while keeping the 4–5 percent bin competitively priced at 40.9 percent. Traders appear split between expectations of persistent energy-driven inflation pressuring the Bank of England to hold or hike rates at 3.75 percent and scenarios where fiscal support or supply-chain resilience could lift growth above trend. With the closely matched probabilities reflecting genuine uncertainty ahead of further data releases, the market prices in a narrow path between contractionary headwinds and any rebound in domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,068Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp rises in global energy prices, prompting major forecasters including the IMF, OECD, and EY to downgrade UK 2026 GDP growth projections by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 0.6–0.8 percent. This stagflationary shock, layered on modest Q1 expansion of just 0.6 percent and sticky CPI inflation now at 3.3 percent, has elevated market-implied odds for the 0–1 percent outcome to 41.5 percent while keeping the 4–5 percent bin competitively priced at 40.9 percent. Traders appear split between expectations of persistent energy-driven inflation pressuring the Bank of England to hold or hike rates at 3.75 percent and scenarios where fiscal support or supply-chain resilience could lift growth above trend. With the closely matched probabilities reflecting genuine uncertainty ahead of further data releases, the market prices in a narrow path between contractionary headwinds and any rebound in domestic demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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