Recent downgrades to UK growth forecasts, driven by the Middle East conflict and associated energy-price shocks, underpin the closely matched market-implied odds favoring the 0-1 percent and sub-zero ranges at 45.5 percent and 41.0 percent respectively. Official data show Q1 2026 GDP expanding 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, yet the Office for Budget Responsibility projects only 1.1 percent for the full year while the IMF and OECD have lowered estimates to 0.8 percent amid sticky inflation near 3.3 percent and a loosening labor market with unemployment approaching 5.1 percent. These dynamics create competitive pressure between modest positive growth and outright contraction scenarios, with traders pricing in the Bank of England’s cautious stance on further rate cuts and potential second-round inflationary effects. Key upcoming releases, including the May CPI print and June Monetary Policy Report, could shift the balance by clarifying whether energy costs and weaker global demand push annual growth below zero or stabilize near the lower end of consensus expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4-5 % 42.6%
<0 29%
3-4 % 4.2%
0–1 % 0
NEU
NEU
12. Feb. 2027
<0
29%
0–1 %
40%
1-2 %
34%
2–3 %
30%
3-4 %
6%
4-5 %
43%
5 %+
40%
4-5 % 42.6%
<0 29%
3-4 % 4.2%
0–1 % 0
NEU
NEU
12. Feb. 2027
<0
$345 Vol.
29%
0–1 %
$386 Vol.
40%
1-2 %
$210 Vol.
34%
2–3 %
$247 Vol.
30%
3-4 %
$201 Vol.
6%
4-5 %
$428 Vol.
43%
5 %+
$252 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downgrades to UK growth forecasts, driven by the Middle East conflict and associated energy-price shocks, underpin the closely matched market-implied odds favoring the 0-1 percent and sub-zero ranges at 45.5 percent and 41.0 percent respectively. Official data show Q1 2026 GDP expanding 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, yet the Office for Budget Responsibility projects only 1.1 percent for the full year while the IMF and OECD have lowered estimates to 0.8 percent amid sticky inflation near 3.3 percent and a loosening labor market with unemployment approaching 5.1 percent. These dynamics create competitive pressure between modest positive growth and outright contraction scenarios, with traders pricing in the Bank of England’s cautious stance on further rate cuts and potential second-round inflationary effects. Key upcoming releases, including the May CPI print and June Monetary Policy Report, could shift the balance by clarifying whether energy costs and weaker global demand push annual growth below zero or stabilize near the lower end of consensus expectations.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$2,068Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent downgrades to UK growth forecasts, driven by the Middle East conflict and associated energy-price shocks, underpin the closely matched market-implied odds favoring the 0-1 percent and sub-zero ranges at 45.5 percent and 41.0 percent respectively. Official data show Q1 2026 GDP expanding 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, yet the Office for Budget Responsibility projects only 1.1 percent for the full year while the IMF and OECD have lowered estimates to 0.8 percent amid sticky inflation near 3.3 percent and a loosening labor market with unemployment approaching 5.1 percent. These dynamics create competitive pressure between modest positive growth and outright contraction scenarios, with traders pricing in the Bank of England’s cautious stance on further rate cuts and potential second-round inflationary effects. Key upcoming releases, including the May CPI print and June Monetary Policy Report, could shift the balance by clarifying whether energy costs and weaker global demand push annual growth below zero or stabilize near the lower end of consensus expectations.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$2,068Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent downgrades to UK growth forecasts, driven by the Middle East conflict and associated energy-price shocks, underpin the closely matched market-implied odds favoring the 0-1 percent and sub-zero ranges at 45.5 percent and 41.0 percent respectively. Official data show Q1 2026 GDP expanding 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, yet the Office for Budget Responsibility projects only 1.1 percent for the full year while the IMF and OECD have lowered estimates to 0.8 percent amid sticky inflation near 3.3 percent and a loosening labor market with unemployment approaching 5.1 percent. These dynamics create competitive pressure between modest positive growth and outright contraction scenarios, with traders pricing in the Bank of England’s cautious stance on further rate cuts and potential second-round inflationary effects. Key upcoming releases, including the May CPI print and June Monetary Policy Report, could shift the balance by clarifying whether energy costs and weaker global demand push annual growth below zero or stabilize near the lower end of consensus expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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