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Welt·Globale Wahlen

Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?

icon for Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?
Welt·Globale Wahlen

Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?

$321,225 Vol.

4. Okt. 2026
Polymarket

$321,225 Vol.

Polymarket

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$135,114 Vol.

84%

Flavio Bolsonaro

$20,621 Vol.

72%

Fernando Haddad

$51,472 Vol.

8%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$26,646 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$11,325 Vol.

3%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$76,048 Vol.

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party seeking a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who received an endorsement from his father, the ineligible former president Jair Bolsonaro. Recent national surveys place Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead of rivals including Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party and Romeu Zema of the NOVO party, with the two frontrunners each polling in the mid-to-high 30s percent and the remainder of the field in single digits. A majority of valid votes is required to avoid a runoff on October 25; the tight simulated head-to-head matchups underscore how first-round consolidation among center-right and conservative voters could shape which pair advances.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$321,225
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote features incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party seeking a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, who received an endorsement from his father, the ineligible former president Jair Bolsonaro. Recent national surveys place Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead of rivals including Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party and Romeu Zema of the NOVO party, with the two frontrunners each polling in the mid-to-high 30s percent and the remainder of the field in single digits. A majority of valid votes is required to avoid a runoff on October 25; the tight simulated head-to-head matchups underscore how first-round consolidation among center-right and conservative voters could shape which pair advances.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$321,225
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 84%, gefolgt von „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 72%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 84¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 84% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $321.2K generiert, seit der Markt am Sep 18, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 6 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?" ist „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 84%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 84% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 72%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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