Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and follow-on variants like Claude Fable 5, have driven the 82% implied probability by topping key leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench coding performance. These models currently outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash or 3.1 Pro in overall intelligence, agentic workflows, and reliability benchmarks. With only weeks until the July 31 resolution, the compressed timeline limits rivals' ability to ship and validate superior systems, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated large language model capabilities. Regulatory scrutiny on frontier access adds minor uncertainty but has not displaced the performance lead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 84%
Google 10.4%
OpenAI 3.4%
xAI <1%
$2,535,729 Vol.
$2,535,729 Vol.
31. Juli 2026
Anthropic
84%
10%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 84%
Google 10.4%
OpenAI 3.4%
xAI <1%
$2,535,729 Vol.
$2,535,729 Vol.
31. Juli 2026
Anthropic
$188,589 Vol.
84%
$160,493 Vol.
10%
OpenAI
$187,713 Vol.
3%
xAI
$219,957 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$164,237 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$169,401 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$145,539 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$156,714 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$146,384 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$161,209 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$204,885 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$147,961 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$158,068 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$154,475 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$173,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and follow-on variants like Claude Fable 5, have driven the 82% implied probability by topping key leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench coding performance. These models currently outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash or 3.1 Pro in overall intelligence, agentic workflows, and reliability benchmarks. With only weeks until the July 31 resolution, the compressed timeline limits rivals' ability to ship and validate superior systems, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated large language model capabilities. Regulatory scrutiny on frontier access adds minor uncertainty but has not displaced the performance lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ET
Volumen
$2,535,729Enddatum
31. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and follow-on variants like Claude Fable 5, have driven the 82% implied probability by topping key leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench coding performance. These models currently outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash or 3.1 Pro in overall intelligence, agentic workflows, and reliability benchmarks. With only weeks until the July 31 resolution, the compressed timeline limits rivals' ability to ship and validate superior systems, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated large language model capabilities. Regulatory scrutiny on frontier access adds minor uncertainty but has not displaced the performance lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,535,729Enddatum
31. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 4, 2026, 1:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent releases, particularly Claude Opus 4.8 in late May and follow-on variants like Claude Fable 5, have driven the 82% implied probability by topping key leaderboards on metrics such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench coding performance. These models currently outpace OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash or 3.1 Pro in overall intelligence, agentic workflows, and reliability benchmarks. With only weeks until the July 31 resolution, the compressed timeline limits rivals' ability to ship and validate superior systems, reinforcing trader consensus around Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated large language model capabilities. Regulatory scrutiny on frontier access adds minor uncertainty but has not displaced the performance lead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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