Anthropic’s Claude Opus series drives the 94% implied probability through repeated leadership on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, where recent versions like Opus 4.8 have posted top scores above 87% alongside expanded context windows and agentic features for multi-file workflows. These capabilities have translated into strong developer adoption via tools like Cursor and Claude Code, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and other labs in practical software engineering tasks. The market consensus reflects this sustained edge in demonstrated performance and ecosystem integration heading into late June. A credible new model release or benchmark surge from OpenAI or Google before month-end remains the clearest scenario that could narrow the gap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 94%
OpenAI 5.2%
Z.ai <1%
Google <1%
$49,557 Vol.
$49,557 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Anthropic
94%
OpenAI
5%
Z.ai
1%
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 5.2%
Z.ai <1%
Google <1%
$49,557 Vol.
$49,557 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Anthropic
$7,200 Vol.
94%
OpenAI
$6,218 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$5,233 Vol.
1%
$4,647 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$5,723 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$3,868 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,970 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,035 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$2,809 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,844 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$747 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$868 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$894 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$633 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$870 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus series drives the 94% implied probability through repeated leadership on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, where recent versions like Opus 4.8 have posted top scores above 87% alongside expanded context windows and agentic features for multi-file workflows. These capabilities have translated into strong developer adoption via tools like Cursor and Claude Code, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and other labs in practical software engineering tasks. The market consensus reflects this sustained edge in demonstrated performance and ecosystem integration heading into late June. A credible new model release or benchmark surge from OpenAI or Google before month-end remains the clearest scenario that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$49,557Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus series drives the 94% implied probability through repeated leadership on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, where recent versions like Opus 4.8 have posted top scores above 87% alongside expanded context windows and agentic features for multi-file workflows. These capabilities have translated into strong developer adoption via tools like Cursor and Claude Code, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and other labs in practical software engineering tasks. The market consensus reflects this sustained edge in demonstrated performance and ecosystem integration heading into late June. A credible new model release or benchmark surge from OpenAI or Google before month-end remains the clearest scenario that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$49,557Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
May 26, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Opus series drives the 94% implied probability through repeated leadership on coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified, where recent versions like Opus 4.8 have posted top scores above 87% alongside expanded context windows and agentic features for multi-file workflows. These capabilities have translated into strong developer adoption via tools like Cursor and Claude Code, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5 variants and other labs in practical software engineering tasks. The market consensus reflects this sustained edge in demonstrated performance and ecosystem integration heading into late June. A credible new model release or benchmark surge from OpenAI or Google before month-end remains the clearest scenario that could narrow the gap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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