Skip to main content
icon for KRG erklärt Unabhängigkeit vom Irak bis zum 31. Dezember?
Geopolitik·Kurden

KRG erklärt Unabhängigkeit vom Irak bis zum 31. Dezember?

icon for KRG erklärt Unabhängigkeit vom Irak bis zum 31. Dezember?
Geopolitik·Kurden

KRG erklärt Unabhängigkeit vom Irak bis zum 31. Dezember?

Ja

6% Chance
Polymarket

$272,582 Vol.

Ja

6% Chance
Polymarket

$272,582 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) faces significant structural barriers to a unilateral independence declaration by December 31, 2026. Internal political deadlock between the dominant Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has prevented formation of a new regional cabinet since the October 2024 elections, undermining institutional cohesion and coordinated decision-making. Ongoing revenue disputes with Baghdad over oil exports, budget transfers, and customs collection have further eroded KRG leverage, as federal authorities assumed greater control of key pipelines and border systems amid regional security strains from the Iran conflict. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and international opposition, combined with current dependence on Iraqi federal frameworks and external actors, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% "No" pricing. No recent official announcements or legislative moves signal an imminent secession push.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.

A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.

The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$272,582
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) faces significant structural barriers to a unilateral independence declaration by December 31, 2026. Internal political deadlock between the dominant Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has prevented formation of a new regional cabinet since the October 2024 elections, undermining institutional cohesion and coordinated decision-making. Ongoing revenue disputes with Baghdad over oil exports, budget transfers, and customs collection have further eroded KRG leverage, as federal authorities assumed greater control of key pipelines and border systems amid regional security strains from the Iran conflict. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and international opposition, combined with current dependence on Iraqi federal frameworks and external actors, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% "No" pricing. No recent official announcements or legislative moves signal an imminent secession push.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.

A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.

The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$272,582
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized. A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance. The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Verwandte

icon for Wird bis zum 31. Dezember irgendein Land einen US-Botschafter ausweisen?

Wird bis zum 31. Dezember irgendein Land einen US-Botschafter ausweisen?

26%
Ja
icon for Wird Saudi-Arabien Israel bis zum 31. Dezember anerkennen?

Wird Saudi-Arabien Israel bis zum 31. Dezember anerkennen?

10%
Ja
icon for Wird das iranische Regime vor 2027 stürzen?

Wird das iranische Regime vor 2027 stürzen?

7%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„KRG erklärt Unabhängigkeit vom Irak bis zum 31. Dezember?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Erklärt die KRG bis zum 31. Dezember die Unabhängigkeit vom Irak?" mit 6%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 6¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 6% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „KRG erklärt Unabhängigkeit vom Irak bis zum 31. Dezember?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $272.6K generiert, seit der Markt am May 1, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „KRG erklärt Unabhängigkeit vom Irak bis zum 31. Dezember?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „KRG erklärt Unabhängigkeit vom Irak bis zum 31. Dezember?" ist „Erklärt die KRG bis zum 31. Dezember die Unabhängigkeit vom Irak?" mit nur 6%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „KRG erklärt Unabhängigkeit vom Irak bis zum 31. Dezember?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.