Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 95.4% implied probability on Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's impeccable 19-year history of annual September iPhone launches and recent supply chain leaks confirming production ramps for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models slated for fall 2026. Credible reports from analysts highlight A20 chip development on TSMC's 2nm process, smaller Dynamic Island designs, and enhanced camera systems, underscoring steady progress despite rumors of a staggered rollout delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects confidence in Apple's hardware-software integration timeline. Realistic risks include severe supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions or low 2nm yields, technical setbacks in under-display tech, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles like EU sideloading mandates, though these remain low-probability catalysts ahead of the expected September event.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$96,026 Vol.
$96,026 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$96,026 Vol.
$96,026 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 95.4% implied probability on Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's impeccable 19-year history of annual September iPhone launches and recent supply chain leaks confirming production ramps for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models slated for fall 2026. Credible reports from analysts highlight A20 chip development on TSMC's 2nm process, smaller Dynamic Island designs, and enhanced camera systems, underscoring steady progress despite rumors of a staggered rollout delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects confidence in Apple's hardware-software integration timeline. Realistic risks include severe supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions or low 2nm yields, technical setbacks in under-display tech, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles like EU sideloading mandates, though these remain low-probability catalysts ahead of the expected September event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$96,026Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 95.4% implied probability on Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's impeccable 19-year history of annual September iPhone launches and recent supply chain leaks confirming production ramps for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models slated for fall 2026. Credible reports from analysts highlight A20 chip development on TSMC's 2nm process, smaller Dynamic Island designs, and enhanced camera systems, underscoring steady progress despite rumors of a staggered rollout delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects confidence in Apple's hardware-software integration timeline. Realistic risks include severe supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions or low 2nm yields, technical setbacks in under-display tech, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles like EU sideloading mandates, though these remain low-probability catalysts ahead of the expected September event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$96,026Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 95.4% implied probability on Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's impeccable 19-year history of annual September iPhone launches and recent supply chain leaks confirming production ramps for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models slated for fall 2026. Credible reports from analysts highlight A20 chip development on TSMC's 2nm process, smaller Dynamic Island designs, and enhanced camera systems, underscoring steady progress despite rumors of a staggered rollout delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects confidence in Apple's hardware-software integration timeline. Realistic risks include severe supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions or low 2nm yields, technical setbacks in under-display tech, or unforeseen regulatory hurdles like EU sideloading mandates, though these remain low-probability catalysts ahead of the expected September event.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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