Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting no observable PLA preparations—such as amphibious buildups or logistics surges—needed for such an operation within the 45-day window, amid routine military exercises and Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and Penghu. Recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing featured tense Taiwan discussions, with Xi warning of potential "conflicts" and U.S. Secretary Rubio cautioning repercussions, yet yielded no escalations and calls for de-escalation. U.S. deterrence remains robust via arms packages, joint drills with allies like Japan and the Philippines, and intelligence assessments ruling out near-term invasion plans. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden blockades, territorial disputes, or diplomatic breakdowns, though economic pressures from the Iran conflict further constrain aggressive moves.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$7,953,916 Vol.
$7,953,916 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$7,953,916 Vol.
$7,953,916 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting no observable PLA preparations—such as amphibious buildups or logistics surges—needed for such an operation within the 45-day window, amid routine military exercises and Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and Penghu. Recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing featured tense Taiwan discussions, with Xi warning of potential "conflicts" and U.S. Secretary Rubio cautioning repercussions, yet yielded no escalations and calls for de-escalation. U.S. deterrence remains robust via arms packages, joint drills with allies like Japan and the Philippines, and intelligence assessments ruling out near-term invasion plans. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden blockades, territorial disputes, or diplomatic breakdowns, though economic pressures from the Iran conflict further constrain aggressive moves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$7,953,916Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting no observable PLA preparations—such as amphibious buildups or logistics surges—needed for such an operation within the 45-day window, amid routine military exercises and Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and Penghu. Recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing featured tense Taiwan discussions, with Xi warning of potential "conflicts" and U.S. Secretary Rubio cautioning repercussions, yet yielded no escalations and calls for de-escalation. U.S. deterrence remains robust via arms packages, joint drills with allies like Japan and the Philippines, and intelligence assessments ruling out near-term invasion plans. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden blockades, territorial disputes, or diplomatic breakdowns, though economic pressures from the Iran conflict further constrain aggressive moves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$7,953,916Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.2% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, reflecting no observable PLA preparations—such as amphibious buildups or logistics surges—needed for such an operation within the 45-day window, amid routine military exercises and Coast Guard incursions near Kinmen and Penghu. Recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing featured tense Taiwan discussions, with Xi warning of potential "conflicts" and U.S. Secretary Rubio cautioning repercussions, yet yielded no escalations and calls for de-escalation. U.S. deterrence remains robust via arms packages, joint drills with allies like Japan and the Philippines, and intelligence assessments ruling out near-term invasion plans. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden blockades, territorial disputes, or diplomatic breakdowns, though economic pressures from the Iran conflict further constrain aggressive moves.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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