Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of observable indicators such as large-scale amphibious force concentrations, logistics surges, or leadership directives shifting from coercive gray-zone measures to active conflict planning. Recent developments include Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills in August 2026, which mobilized record reservists and tested defensive scenarios, alongside routine PLA air and maritime patrols, live-fire exercises, and blockade simulations that align with established patterns of pressure rather than invasion preparation. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Beijing lacks a fixed unification timeline and continues prioritizing non-kinetic tools amid high economic and military risks. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes within the narrow window include rapid escalation from miscalculation during ongoing drills, unforeseen leadership directives, or abrupt diplomatic realignments, though these remain low-probability events.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
<1% Chance
$1,911,693 Vol.
$1,911,693 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Ja
<1% Chance
$1,911,693 Vol.
$1,911,693 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of observable indicators such as large-scale amphibious force concentrations, logistics surges, or leadership directives shifting from coercive gray-zone measures to active conflict planning. Recent developments include Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills in August 2026, which mobilized record reservists and tested defensive scenarios, alongside routine PLA air and maritime patrols, live-fire exercises, and blockade simulations that align with established patterns of pressure rather than invasion preparation. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Beijing lacks a fixed unification timeline and continues prioritizing non-kinetic tools amid high economic and military risks. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes within the narrow window include rapid escalation from miscalculation during ongoing drills, unforeseen leadership directives, or abrupt diplomatic realignments, though these remain low-probability events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$1,911,693Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of observable indicators such as large-scale amphibious force concentrations, logistics surges, or leadership directives shifting from coercive gray-zone measures to active conflict planning. Recent developments include Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills in August 2026, which mobilized record reservists and tested defensive scenarios, alongside routine PLA air and maritime patrols, live-fire exercises, and blockade simulations that align with established patterns of pressure rather than invasion preparation. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Beijing lacks a fixed unification timeline and continues prioritizing non-kinetic tools amid high economic and military risks. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes within the narrow window include rapid escalation from miscalculation during ongoing drills, unforeseen leadership directives, or abrupt diplomatic realignments, though these remain low-probability events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$1,911,693Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven by the absence of observable indicators such as large-scale amphibious force concentrations, logistics surges, or leadership directives shifting from coercive gray-zone measures to active conflict planning. Recent developments include Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills in August 2026, which mobilized record reservists and tested defensive scenarios, alongside routine PLA air and maritime patrols, live-fire exercises, and blockade simulations that align with established patterns of pressure rather than invasion preparation. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm Beijing lacks a fixed unification timeline and continues prioritizing non-kinetic tools amid high economic and military risks. Realistic scenarios that could still alter outcomes within the narrow window include rapid escalation from miscalculation during ongoing drills, unforeseen leadership directives, or abrupt diplomatic realignments, though these remain low-probability events.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen