Israel’s government has advanced de facto control over West Bank territory through accelerated settlement approvals, outpost legalization, land registration reforms, and expanded Civil Administration authority into Areas A and B, yet no formal declaration of sovereignty has occurred. Recent actions center on E1 settlement tenders scheduled to open in late October 2026 ahead of parliamentary elections, alongside cabinet measures extending enforcement powers, but these steps fall short of the official annexation required to resolve the market. Coalition dynamics, international diplomatic pressure, and competing priorities including Gaza and Iran have kept explicit sovereignty proposals off the immediate legislative agenda. Traders therefore assign a 94.5% implied probability to no formal annexation by the December 31, 2026 deadline, reflecting the distinction between incremental administrative integration and a binding territorial claim.