Ongoing military tensions and the collapse of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have kept formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic ties severed, with the United States relying on Switzerland as protecting power and maintaining only a virtual embassy presence. Renewed exchanges of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, expanded U.S. sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, and fresh travel advisories as of mid-September underscore the absence of conditions for embassy reopening. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reflects these persistent barriers through year-end. A last-minute diplomatic breakthrough or verified de-escalation agreement before December 31 could still shift the outcome, though no such pathway has materialized in recent weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWerden die USA 2026 ihre Botschaft im Iran wiedereröffnen?
Werden die USA 2026 ihre Botschaft im Iran wiedereröffnen?
Ja
5% Chance
$159,500 Vol.
$159,500 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
5% Chance
$159,500 Vol.
$159,500 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military tensions and the collapse of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have kept formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic ties severed, with the United States relying on Switzerland as protecting power and maintaining only a virtual embassy presence. Renewed exchanges of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, expanded U.S. sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, and fresh travel advisories as of mid-September underscore the absence of conditions for embassy reopening. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reflects these persistent barriers through year-end. A last-minute diplomatic breakthrough or verified de-escalation agreement before December 31 could still shift the outcome, though no such pathway has materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volumen
$159,500Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military tensions and the collapse of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have kept formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic ties severed, with the United States relying on Switzerland as protecting power and maintaining only a virtual embassy presence. Renewed exchanges of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, expanded U.S. sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, and fresh travel advisories as of mid-September underscore the absence of conditions for embassy reopening. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reflects these persistent barriers through year-end. A last-minute diplomatic breakthrough or verified de-escalation agreement before December 31 could still shift the outcome, though no such pathway has materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$159,500Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military tensions and the collapse of the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have kept formal U.S.-Iran diplomatic ties severed, with the United States relying on Switzerland as protecting power and maintaining only a virtual embassy presence. Renewed exchanges of strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, expanded U.S. sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, and fresh travel advisories as of mid-September underscore the absence of conditions for embassy reopening. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reflects these persistent barriers through year-end. A last-minute diplomatic breakthrough or verified de-escalation agreement before December 31 could still shift the outcome, though no such pathway has materialized in recent weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen