Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran war continue to shape risks of Iranian strikes on the UAE, following US-Israeli operations that began in late February. Iran launched extensive missile and drone barrages at Emirati targets, including civilian infrastructure and US-linked sites, prompting UAE air defenses to intercept hundreds of projectiles and resulting in casualties and damage. A reported Iranian ballistic missile launch on August 18, 2026, toward UAE waters triggered nationwide alerts and led Abu Dhabi to suspend all trade and financial transactions with Tehran on August 19. Iranian officials denied involvement and rejected the accusations. UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash stated on September 7 that rebuilding trust remains difficult despite potential for restored relations, while the UAE advances alternative energy export routes to reduce vulnerability in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier de-escalation efforts, including June security talks and financial arrangements, have not fully stabilized ties amid broader regional ceasefire fragility and sanctions enforcement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird der Iran bis... auf die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate zielen?
Wird der Iran bis... auf die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate zielen?
NEU
15. Sep. 2026
30. September
77%
15. September
43%
$13 Vol.
30. September
$13 Vol.
77%
15. September
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran war continue to shape risks of Iranian strikes on the UAE, following US-Israeli operations that began in late February. Iran launched extensive missile and drone barrages at Emirati targets, including civilian infrastructure and US-linked sites, prompting UAE air defenses to intercept hundreds of projectiles and resulting in casualties and damage. A reported Iranian ballistic missile launch on August 18, 2026, toward UAE waters triggered nationwide alerts and led Abu Dhabi to suspend all trade and financial transactions with Tehran on August 19. Iranian officials denied involvement and rejected the accusations. UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash stated on September 7 that rebuilding trust remains difficult despite potential for restored relations, while the UAE advances alternative energy export routes to reduce vulnerability in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier de-escalation efforts, including June security talks and financial arrangements, have not fully stabilized ties amid broader regional ceasefire fragility and sanctions enforcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 8, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volumen
$13Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 2:46 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran war continue to shape risks of Iranian strikes on the UAE, following US-Israeli operations that began in late February. Iran launched extensive missile and drone barrages at Emirati targets, including civilian infrastructure and US-linked sites, prompting UAE air defenses to intercept hundreds of projectiles and resulting in casualties and damage. A reported Iranian ballistic missile launch on August 18, 2026, toward UAE waters triggered nationwide alerts and led Abu Dhabi to suspend all trade and financial transactions with Tehran on August 19. Iranian officials denied involvement and rejected the accusations. UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash stated on September 7 that rebuilding trust remains difficult despite potential for restored relations, while the UAE advances alternative energy export routes to reduce vulnerability in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier de-escalation efforts, including June security talks and financial arrangements, have not fully stabilized ties amid broader regional ceasefire fragility and sanctions enforcement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
A military action will be considered directed at the United Arab Emirates if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of the United Arab Emirates, including any internal waters.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (GST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the United Arab Emirates and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$13Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 2:46 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran war continue to shape risks of Iranian strikes on the UAE, following US-Israeli operations that began in late February. Iran launched extensive missile and drone barrages at Emirati targets, including civilian infrastructure and US-linked sites, prompting UAE air defenses to intercept hundreds of projectiles and resulting in casualties and damage. A reported Iranian ballistic missile launch on August 18, 2026, toward UAE waters triggered nationwide alerts and led Abu Dhabi to suspend all trade and financial transactions with Tehran on August 19. Iranian officials denied involvement and rejected the accusations. UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash stated on September 7 that rebuilding trust remains difficult despite potential for restored relations, while the UAE advances alternative energy export routes to reduce vulnerability in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier de-escalation efforts, including June security talks and financial arrangements, have not fully stabilized ties amid broader regional ceasefire fragility and sanctions enforcement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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