Martial law in Ukraine, extended through at least October 2026 and renewable in 90-day increments, continues to bar presidential elections under constitutional rules, with no scheduled vote before a stable ceasefire or war's end. Recent KIIS polling from September 2026 shows 53% of respondents prefer Zelenskyy limit himself to one term and 71% oppose wartime voting, yet these views have not produced mechanisms to remove him or accelerate a contest. Zelenskyy has signaled openness to stepping aside post-conflict while remaining in office amid ongoing hostilities, with no verified resignation, successful opposition challenge, or external intervention altering his position by mid-2027. Traders price the "No" outcome at 80% because legal and security constraints make removal or replacement improbable within the resolution window absent major, unforeseen shifts in the conflict.