**Ongoing Russian invasion, repeated extensions of martial law, and constitutional rules extending Zelenskyy’s mandate have kept presidential elections off the table, supporting the 92.5% “No” implied probability that he remains in office through the end of 2026.** Martial law, in force since February 2022 and extended through at least 31 October 2026, bars national elections under Ukrainian law. Zelenskyy’s five-year term technically ended in May 2024, but Article 108 of the constitution allows him to serve until a successor is inaugurated. Recent polling shows most Ukrainians oppose wartime voting, and logistical barriers—displaced populations, occupied territory, and security risks—remain prohibitive. In August 2026, former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov publicly called for wartime elections, prompting Zelenskyy to reject the idea as a “huge risk” that would “split Ukraine.” No legislative framework or security guarantees exist for a vote by year-end, and public and elite consensus continues to favor deferring any contest until after the conflict. These structural and political realities underpin traders’ strong expectation that Zelenskyy will still hold office on 31 December 2026.