Argentina’s monthly inflation data for April 2026, released May 14 at 2.6% month-over-month and down from March’s 3.4%, anchors trader expectations for a May print centered in the 2.2–2.4% range that currently carries 63.5% implied probability. Sustained fiscal surpluses, ongoing monetary tightening by Economy Minister Caputo, and restrained regulated-price adjustments have reinforced the disinflation trajectory, with year-to-date inflation near 12.3% and analyst consensus for full-year 2026 inflation now at 30.5%. Market-implied odds therefore price in a continuation of the April slowdown absent major utility or food-price shocks, while the narrower 2.5–2.7% bin at 26% reflects residual uncertainty around seasonal and policy-adjustment effects ahead of the mid-June INDEC release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2.2–2.4% 66%
2.5–2.7% 26%
≤2,1% 21%
2.8–3.0% 12%
$46,627 Vol.
$46,627 Vol.
11 jun 2026
≤2,1%
21%
2.2–2.4%
59%
2.5–2.7%
26%
2.8–3.0%
12%
3.1–3.3%
6%
3.4–3.6%
6%
3.7–3.9%
6%
4.0%+
3%
2.2–2.4% 66%
2.5–2.7% 26%
≤2,1% 21%
2.8–3.0% 12%
$46,627 Vol.
$46,627 Vol.
11 jun 2026
≤2,1%
$415 Vol.
21%
2.2–2.4%
$46,077 Vol.
59%
2.5–2.7%
$0 Vol.
26%
2.8–3.0%
$50 Vol.
12%
3.1–3.3%
$0 Vol.
6%
3.4–3.6%
$1 Vol.
6%
3.7–3.9%
$20 Vol.
6%
4.0%+
$63 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina’s monthly inflation data for April 2026, released May 14 at 2.6% month-over-month and down from March’s 3.4%, anchors trader expectations for a May print centered in the 2.2–2.4% range that currently carries 63.5% implied probability. Sustained fiscal surpluses, ongoing monetary tightening by Economy Minister Caputo, and restrained regulated-price adjustments have reinforced the disinflation trajectory, with year-to-date inflation near 12.3% and analyst consensus for full-year 2026 inflation now at 30.5%. Market-implied odds therefore price in a continuation of the April slowdown absent major utility or food-price shocks, while the narrower 2.5–2.7% bin at 26% reflects residual uncertainty around seasonal and policy-adjustment effects ahead of the mid-June INDEC release.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$46,627Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina’s monthly inflation data for April 2026, released May 14 at 2.6% month-over-month and down from March’s 3.4%, anchors trader expectations for a May print centered in the 2.2–2.4% range that currently carries 63.5% implied probability. Sustained fiscal surpluses, ongoing monetary tightening by Economy Minister Caputo, and restrained regulated-price adjustments have reinforced the disinflation trajectory, with year-to-date inflation near 12.3% and analyst consensus for full-year 2026 inflation now at 30.5%. Market-implied odds therefore price in a continuation of the April slowdown absent major utility or food-price shocks, while the narrower 2.5–2.7% bin at 26% reflects residual uncertainty around seasonal and policy-adjustment effects ahead of the mid-June INDEC release.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$46,627Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Argentina’s monthly inflation data for April 2026, released May 14 at 2.6% month-over-month and down from March’s 3.4%, anchors trader expectations for a May print centered in the 2.2–2.4% range that currently carries 63.5% implied probability. Sustained fiscal surpluses, ongoing monetary tightening by Economy Minister Caputo, and restrained regulated-price adjustments have reinforced the disinflation trajectory, with year-to-date inflation near 12.3% and analyst consensus for full-year 2026 inflation now at 30.5%. Market-implied odds therefore price in a continuation of the April slowdown absent major utility or food-price shocks, while the narrower 2.5–2.7% bin at 26% reflects residual uncertainty around seasonal and policy-adjustment effects ahead of the mid-June INDEC release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes