Traders assign a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil’s June Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on extending the cautious easing cycle amid moderating GDP growth and still-restrictive monetary policy. After consecutive 25-basis-point cuts to 14.50% in late April, the committee has maintained a data-dependent stance despite headline inflation accelerating above the 3% target and Focus survey expectations for 2026 rising to 4.9%. Elevated uncertainty from Middle East oil shocks has tempered hawkish risks, keeping no-change odds at 24.5% while virtually eliminating hike probabilities. The upcoming full April IPCA release and June 16–17 decision will test whether growth weakness or inflation persistence ultimately dictates the next move in the policy calibration path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión del Banco de Brasil en junio?
¿Decisión del Banco de Brasil en junio?
Disminuir 77%
Sin cambios 23.8%
Aumentar <1%
$139,683 Vol.
$139,683 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Aumentar
1%
Sin cambios
24%
Disminuir
77%
Disminuir 77%
Sin cambios 23.8%
Aumentar <1%
$139,683 Vol.
$139,683 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Aumentar
$41,318 Vol.
1%
Sin cambios
$36,461 Vol.
24%
Disminuir
$62,438 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil’s June Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on extending the cautious easing cycle amid moderating GDP growth and still-restrictive monetary policy. After consecutive 25-basis-point cuts to 14.50% in late April, the committee has maintained a data-dependent stance despite headline inflation accelerating above the 3% target and Focus survey expectations for 2026 rising to 4.9%. Elevated uncertainty from Middle East oil shocks has tempered hawkish risks, keeping no-change odds at 24.5% while virtually eliminating hike probabilities. The upcoming full April IPCA release and June 16–17 decision will test whether growth weakness or inflation persistence ultimately dictates the next move in the policy calibration path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$139,683Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil’s June Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on extending the cautious easing cycle amid moderating GDP growth and still-restrictive monetary policy. After consecutive 25-basis-point cuts to 14.50% in late April, the committee has maintained a data-dependent stance despite headline inflation accelerating above the 3% target and Focus survey expectations for 2026 rising to 4.9%. Elevated uncertainty from Middle East oil shocks has tempered hawkish risks, keeping no-change odds at 24.5% while virtually eliminating hike probabilities. The upcoming full April IPCA release and June 16–17 decision will test whether growth weakness or inflation persistence ultimately dictates the next move in the policy calibration path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$139,683Fecha de finalización
16 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 75% implied probability to a Selic rate decrease at the Banco Central do Brasil’s June Copom meeting, reflecting consensus on extending the cautious easing cycle amid moderating GDP growth and still-restrictive monetary policy. After consecutive 25-basis-point cuts to 14.50% in late April, the committee has maintained a data-dependent stance despite headline inflation accelerating above the 3% target and Focus survey expectations for 2026 rising to 4.9%. Elevated uncertainty from Middle East oil shocks has tempered hawkish risks, keeping no-change odds at 24.5% while virtually eliminating hike probabilities. The upcoming full April IPCA release and June 16–17 decision will test whether growth weakness or inflation persistence ultimately dictates the next move in the policy calibration path.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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