Traders assign an 84.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of England’s June 18 meeting, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee’s April 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% by an 8-1 vote amid March CPI inflation rising to 3.3%. Energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict have lifted the inflation trajectory, yet a softening labor market—with regular pay growth at a five-year low of 3.6%—and weaker growth forecasts have tempered immediate tightening expectations. Market-implied odds price only modest further rate increases later in 2026, consistent with the Bank’s guidance to monitor second-round effects before adjusting policy. April CPI and May employment data due before the June meeting remain key swing factors that could shift these probabilities.