Recent hawkish signals from Bank of Korea officials have positioned no change as the leading outcome at 55% implied probability for the July policy meeting, with an increase at 41.5% reflecting elevated inflation risks and a cut at just 1.2%. Inflation accelerated to 2.6% in April, exceeding the 2% target amid higher global oil prices linked to Middle East tensions, while growth has held near the 2.0% forecast supported by semiconductor exports. Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai’s early May remarks highlighted the need to consider rate hikes after seven straight holds at the 2.50% base rate, echoed by outgoing board member Shin Sung-hwan’s emphasis on inflation control. Traders now await the May 28 meeting for updated forward guidance, with incoming data on price pressures and the won likely to determine whether probabilities shift toward tightening or remain anchored on a pause.