Recent opinion polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election show the CDU holding a consistent edge over the Greens, typically 19–20 percent to 16–17 percent. The four-way contest among CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne remains tight overall, with low satisfaction in the incumbent CDU–SPD senate and limited name recognition for most lead candidates. This narrow but steady CDU lead over the Greens underpins trader pricing at roughly 79 percent for the CDU receiving more votes. Coalition arithmetic favors three-party arrangements that could include the Greens, yet current vote-intention data continue to place the CDU ahead of them on election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCDU
79% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
CDU
79% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent opinion polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election show the CDU holding a consistent edge over the Greens, typically 19–20 percent to 16–17 percent. The four-way contest among CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne remains tight overall, with low satisfaction in the incumbent CDU–SPD senate and limited name recognition for most lead candidates. This narrow but steady CDU lead over the Greens underpins trader pricing at roughly 79 percent for the CDU receiving more votes. Coalition arithmetic favors three-party arrangements that could include the Greens, yet current vote-intention data continue to place the CDU ahead of them on election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volumen
$744Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent opinion polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election show the CDU holding a consistent edge over the Greens, typically 19–20 percent to 16–17 percent. The four-way contest among CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne remains tight overall, with low satisfaction in the incumbent CDU–SPD senate and limited name recognition for most lead candidates. This narrow but steady CDU lead over the Greens underpins trader pricing at roughly 79 percent for the CDU receiving more votes. Coalition arithmetic favors three-party arrangements that could include the Greens, yet current vote-intention data continue to place the CDU ahead of them on election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$744Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election show the CDU holding a consistent edge over the Greens, typically 19–20 percent to 16–17 percent. The four-way contest among CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne remains tight overall, with low satisfaction in the incumbent CDU–SPD senate and limited name recognition for most lead candidates. This narrow but steady CDU lead over the Greens underpins trader pricing at roughly 79 percent for the CDU receiving more votes. Coalition arithmetic favors three-party arrangements that could include the Greens, yet current vote-intention data continue to place the CDU ahead of them on election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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