AfD support in Berlin has risen sharply amid the party's national polling surge to around 28 percent in multiple August 2026 surveys, including INSA and Infratest dimap. A July 2026 INSA poll marked the first time AfD topped a Berlin-specific survey ahead of the September 20 state election, outpacing the CDU-SPD governing coalition and other parties. Traders appear to weigh this momentum, combined with AfD strength in eastern states and voter dissatisfaction with the federal coalition, as tilting the probability toward the party exceeding 17 percent. Recent leadership continuity at the AfD national convention and limited counter-mobilization have reinforced the trend without major reversals in the past month.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones estatales de Berlín: ¿AfD por encima/por debajo del 17%?
Elecciones estatales de Berlín: ¿AfD por encima/por debajo del 17%?
Más
61% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
Más
61% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
20 sep 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).AfD support in Berlin has risen sharply amid the party's national polling surge to around 28 percent in multiple August 2026 surveys, including INSA and Infratest dimap. A July 2026 INSA poll marked the first time AfD topped a Berlin-specific survey ahead of the September 20 state election, outpacing the CDU-SPD governing coalition and other parties. Traders appear to weigh this momentum, combined with AfD strength in eastern states and voter dissatisfaction with the federal coalition, as tilting the probability toward the party exceeding 17 percent. Recent leadership continuity at the AfD national convention and limited counter-mobilization have reinforced the trend without major reversals in the past month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
Volumen
$3,188Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).AfD support in Berlin has risen sharply amid the party's national polling surge to around 28 percent in multiple August 2026 surveys, including INSA and Infratest dimap. A July 2026 INSA poll marked the first time AfD topped a Berlin-specific survey ahead of the September 20 state election, outpacing the CDU-SPD governing coalition and other parties. Traders appear to weigh this momentum, combined with AfD strength in eastern states and voter dissatisfaction with the federal coalition, as tilting the probability toward the party exceeding 17 percent. Recent leadership continuity at the AfD national convention and limited counter-mobilization have reinforced the trend without major reversals in the past month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$3,188Fecha de finalización
20 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...AfD support in Berlin has risen sharply amid the party's national polling surge to around 28 percent in multiple August 2026 surveys, including INSA and Infratest dimap. A July 2026 INSA poll marked the first time AfD topped a Berlin-specific survey ahead of the September 20 state election, outpacing the CDU-SPD governing coalition and other parties. Traders appear to weigh this momentum, combined with AfD strength in eastern states and voter dissatisfaction with the federal coalition, as tilting the probability toward the party exceeding 17 percent. Recent leadership continuity at the AfD national convention and limited counter-mobilization have reinforced the trend without major reversals in the past month.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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