**Recent polling averages place the SPD at 6–7% ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, aligning with the market’s leading 5–7% band.** Multiple institutes (INSA, Infratest dimap, Pollytix) from late July through mid-August 2026 show the party fluctuating narrowly between 5% and 7%, with the most recent readings clustering around 6–7%. This reflects the SPD’s long-term weakness in eastern Germany, where the party has hovered near or below the 5% threshold in successive surveys since 2025. The current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition government and SPD’s junior-partner status contribute to limited visibility, as voter attention focuses on the AfD’s sustained lead near 42% and the CDU’s decline. SPD lead candidate Armin Willingmann’s nomination has not produced measurable polling gains. Traders price the 5–7% interval highest because the data show persistent but stable support near the parliamentary threshold, with smaller parties (including the SPD) emphasizing tactical voting to block an AfD majority. A dip below 5% or a modest push into the high single digits remains possible given typical polling margins and the final weeks of campaigning, which explains the secondary pricing on adjacent bands. No major late-breaking events have shifted the range materially in recent weeks.