Recent polls from late August place the AfD at 40–42% in Saxony-Anhalt, with the CDU trailing at 22–23% and smaller parties such as the Left, SPD, and Greens near or above the 5% threshold. This positioning keeps the AfD vote share tightly clustered around the 39–45% range ahead of the 6 September election. A substantial share of voters—often 20–30%—remain undecided or may shift at the last moment, while polling margins of error and turnout variations among core supporters add further uncertainty. Other parties’ consistent refusal to form coalitions with the AfD has little direct effect on raw vote totals but underscores the competitive pressure on the leading outcome. Late-campaign developments, including turnout mobilization or final undecided shifts, remain the main variables that could separate the most likely bins.