Recent weak eurozone GDP data for the first quarter of 2026, showing just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year expansion, has anchored trader sentiment around modest annual growth. Energy price spikes and heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict prompted downward revisions to consensus forecasts, with the ECB projecting 0.9% for the full year. This environment supports the market-implied 69.5% probability on the 1.0-2.0% outcome while elevating the 25.9% odds on 0-1.0%, reflecting a narrow range of expected outcomes amid subdued domestic demand and external headwinds. Upcoming releases on inflation, labor market conditions, and potential ECB policy adjustments through mid-2026 remain key variables that could refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1,0-2,0% 70%
3,0-4,0% 20.5%
2,0-3,0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ene 2027
<0%
13%
0-1,0%
26%
1,0-2,0%
70%
2,0-3,0%
10%
3,0-4,0%
21%
4,0-5,0%
4%
5,0-6,0%
2%
6,0-7,0%
1%
7.0%+
3%
1,0-2,0% 70%
3,0-4,0% 20.5%
2,0-3,0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ene 2027
<0%
$792 Vol.
13%
0-1,0%
$636 Vol.
26%
1,0-2,0%
$1,484 Vol.
70%
2,0-3,0%
$638 Vol.
10%
3,0-4,0%
$567 Vol.
21%
4,0-5,0%
$1,540 Vol.
4%
5,0-6,0%
$631 Vol.
2%
6,0-7,0%
$1,323 Vol.
1%
7.0%+
$1,110 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak eurozone GDP data for the first quarter of 2026, showing just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year expansion, has anchored trader sentiment around modest annual growth. Energy price spikes and heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict prompted downward revisions to consensus forecasts, with the ECB projecting 0.9% for the full year. This environment supports the market-implied 69.5% probability on the 1.0-2.0% outcome while elevating the 25.9% odds on 0-1.0%, reflecting a narrow range of expected outcomes amid subdued domestic demand and external headwinds. Upcoming releases on inflation, labor market conditions, and potential ECB policy adjustments through mid-2026 remain key variables that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$8,722Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weak eurozone GDP data for the first quarter of 2026, showing just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year expansion, has anchored trader sentiment around modest annual growth. Energy price spikes and heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict prompted downward revisions to consensus forecasts, with the ECB projecting 0.9% for the full year. This environment supports the market-implied 69.5% probability on the 1.0-2.0% outcome while elevating the 25.9% odds on 0-1.0%, reflecting a narrow range of expected outcomes amid subdued domestic demand and external headwinds. Upcoming releases on inflation, labor market conditions, and potential ECB policy adjustments through mid-2026 remain key variables that could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,722Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent weak eurozone GDP data for the first quarter of 2026, showing just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year expansion, has anchored trader sentiment around modest annual growth. Energy price spikes and heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict prompted downward revisions to consensus forecasts, with the ECB projecting 0.9% for the full year. This environment supports the market-implied 69.5% probability on the 1.0-2.0% outcome while elevating the 25.9% odds on 0-1.0%, reflecting a narrow range of expected outcomes amid subdued domestic demand and external headwinds. Upcoming releases on inflation, labor market conditions, and potential ECB policy adjustments through mid-2026 remain key variables that could refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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