Recent July FOMC data and the 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% anchor trader consensus around three consecutive pauses through October, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains alongside elevated inflation above the 2% target driven by energy and supply shocks. Geopolitical tensions have sustained price pressures, tempering expectations for near-term easing while limiting aggressive tightening bets. Market-implied odds price the pause-pause-pause path at 59%, with the 39% “other” category capturing upside risks from persistent inflation readings or hawkish shifts ahead of the September 15-16 meeting. Upcoming CPI releases and labor reports will test whether this on-hold stance holds or yields to a hike.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$709,915 Vol.
$709,915 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
39%
Pause–Pause–Pause 59%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$709,915 Vol.
$709,915 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$234,866 Vol.
59%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,425 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$35,275 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Vol.
<1%
Other
$310,801 Vol.
39%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July FOMC data and the 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% anchor trader consensus around three consecutive pauses through October, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains alongside elevated inflation above the 2% target driven by energy and supply shocks. Geopolitical tensions have sustained price pressures, tempering expectations for near-term easing while limiting aggressive tightening bets. Market-implied odds price the pause-pause-pause path at 59%, with the 39% “other” category capturing upside risks from persistent inflation readings or hawkish shifts ahead of the September 15-16 meeting. Upcoming CPI releases and labor reports will test whether this on-hold stance holds or yields to a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volumen
$709,915Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July FOMC data and the 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% anchor trader consensus around three consecutive pauses through October, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains alongside elevated inflation above the 2% target driven by energy and supply shocks. Geopolitical tensions have sustained price pressures, tempering expectations for near-term easing while limiting aggressive tightening bets. Market-implied odds price the pause-pause-pause path at 59%, with the 39% “other” category capturing upside risks from persistent inflation readings or hawkish shifts ahead of the September 15-16 meeting. Upcoming CPI releases and labor reports will test whether this on-hold stance holds or yields to a hike.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$709,915Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July FOMC data and the 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% anchor trader consensus around three consecutive pauses through October, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.1% and solid job gains alongside elevated inflation above the 2% target driven by energy and supply shocks. Geopolitical tensions have sustained price pressures, tempering expectations for near-term easing while limiting aggressive tightening bets. Market-implied odds price the pause-pause-pause path at 59%, with the 39% “other” category capturing upside risks from persistent inflation readings or hawkish shifts ahead of the September 15-16 meeting. Upcoming CPI releases and labor reports will test whether this on-hold stance holds or yields to a hike.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes