**Elevated inflation readings and Middle East supply disruptions have anchored trader expectations around a hold-heavy path for the Federal Reserve’s remaining 2026 meetings.** July’s 9-3 decision to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, coupled with three dissents favoring a hike, shifted focus to September and October, where incoming CPI, PCE, and labor data will determine whether the committee stays on pause or tightens. Market-implied odds reflect this data dependence: Pause–Pause–Pause at 59.5 percent captures the baseline of continued patience, while the 39 percent “Other” bucket prices in the growing possibility of a 25-basis-point hike if energy prices remain elevated. Forward-looking indicators such as fed-funds futures and breakeven inflation show modest upward drift in rate expectations, underscoring why cuts remain priced below 4 percent. Upcoming releases through mid-September and the September FOMC itself represent the next clear catalysts that could reprice these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,907 Vol.
$711,907 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
39%
Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Other 39%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$711,907 Vol.
$711,907 Vol.
28 oct 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$235,909 Vol.
60%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,561 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$36,021 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 Vol.
<1%
Other
$310,868 Vol.
39%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and Middle East supply disruptions have anchored trader expectations around a hold-heavy path for the Federal Reserve’s remaining 2026 meetings.** July’s 9-3 decision to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, coupled with three dissents favoring a hike, shifted focus to September and October, where incoming CPI, PCE, and labor data will determine whether the committee stays on pause or tightens. Market-implied odds reflect this data dependence: Pause–Pause–Pause at 59.5 percent captures the baseline of continued patience, while the 39 percent “Other” bucket prices in the growing possibility of a 25-basis-point hike if energy prices remain elevated. Forward-looking indicators such as fed-funds futures and breakeven inflation show modest upward drift in rate expectations, underscoring why cuts remain priced below 4 percent. Upcoming releases through mid-September and the September FOMC itself represent the next clear catalysts that could reprice these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volumen
$711,907Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and Middle East supply disruptions have anchored trader expectations around a hold-heavy path for the Federal Reserve’s remaining 2026 meetings.** July’s 9-3 decision to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, coupled with three dissents favoring a hike, shifted focus to September and October, where incoming CPI, PCE, and labor data will determine whether the committee stays on pause or tightens. Market-implied odds reflect this data dependence: Pause–Pause–Pause at 59.5 percent captures the baseline of continued patience, while the 39 percent “Other” bucket prices in the growing possibility of a 25-basis-point hike if energy prices remain elevated. Forward-looking indicators such as fed-funds futures and breakeven inflation show modest upward drift in rate expectations, underscoring why cuts remain priced below 4 percent. Upcoming releases through mid-September and the September FOMC itself represent the next clear catalysts that could reprice these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$711,907Fecha de finalización
28 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation readings and Middle East supply disruptions have anchored trader expectations around a hold-heavy path for the Federal Reserve’s remaining 2026 meetings.** July’s 9-3 decision to keep the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75 percent, coupled with three dissents favoring a hike, shifted focus to September and October, where incoming CPI, PCE, and labor data will determine whether the committee stays on pause or tightens. Market-implied odds reflect this data dependence: Pause–Pause–Pause at 59.5 percent captures the baseline of continued patience, while the 39 percent “Other” bucket prices in the growing possibility of a 25-basis-point hike if energy prices remain elevated. Forward-looking indicators such as fed-funds futures and breakeven inflation show modest upward drift in rate expectations, underscoring why cuts remain priced below 4 percent. Upcoming releases through mid-September and the September FOMC itself represent the next clear catalysts that could reprice these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes