Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. real GDP growth reflects the first-quarter advance estimate of 2.0 percent annualized, which accelerated from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent amid stronger business investment in AI-related equipment. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed survey, CBO, and private economists cluster between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent for the full year, incorporating fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act that boosted consumption and capital spending while tariffs exert downward pressure on net exports. The market’s tight split between the 1.5–2.0 percent and greater-than-2.5 percent bins underscores uncertainty over the pace of second-quarter momentum, labor-market resilience, and the net effect of monetary policy easing versus trade-policy headwinds, with upcoming data releases on consumer spending and employment poised to shift implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
<0.5% 26.7%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1,5–2,0% 18.7%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
27%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1,5–2,0%
37%
2.0–2.5%
22%
>2,5%
34%
<0.5% 26.7%
2.0–2.5% 19%
1,5–2,0% 18.7%
0.5–1.0% 12.4%
$28,267 Vol.
$28,267 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$3,906 Vol.
27%
0.5–1.0%
$15,332 Vol.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,562 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0%
$1,534 Vol.
37%
2.0–2.5%
$1,846 Vol.
22%
>2,5%
$4,088 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. real GDP growth reflects the first-quarter advance estimate of 2.0 percent annualized, which accelerated from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent amid stronger business investment in AI-related equipment. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed survey, CBO, and private economists cluster between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent for the full year, incorporating fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act that boosted consumption and capital spending while tariffs exert downward pressure on net exports. The market’s tight split between the 1.5–2.0 percent and greater-than-2.5 percent bins underscores uncertainty over the pace of second-quarter momentum, labor-market resilience, and the net effect of monetary policy easing versus trade-policy headwinds, with upcoming data releases on consumer spending and employment poised to shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$28,267Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. real GDP growth reflects the first-quarter advance estimate of 2.0 percent annualized, which accelerated from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent amid stronger business investment in AI-related equipment. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed survey, CBO, and private economists cluster between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent for the full year, incorporating fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act that boosted consumption and capital spending while tariffs exert downward pressure on net exports. The market’s tight split between the 1.5–2.0 percent and greater-than-2.5 percent bins underscores uncertainty over the pace of second-quarter momentum, labor-market resilience, and the net effect of monetary policy easing versus trade-policy headwinds, with upcoming data releases on consumer spending and employment poised to shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$28,267Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. real GDP growth reflects the first-quarter advance estimate of 2.0 percent annualized, which accelerated from the prior quarter’s 0.5 percent amid stronger business investment in AI-related equipment. Consensus forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed survey, CBO, and private economists cluster between 1.8 percent and 2.5 percent for the full year, incorporating fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act that boosted consumption and capital spending while tariffs exert downward pressure on net exports. The market’s tight split between the 1.5–2.0 percent and greater-than-2.5 percent bins underscores uncertainty over the pace of second-quarter momentum, labor-market resilience, and the net effect of monetary policy easing versus trade-policy headwinds, with upcoming data releases on consumer spending and employment poised to shift implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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