**Current forecasts from official and ensemble models position a daily maximum near 13–14 °C as the most probable outcome for Buenos Aires on 22 August 2026.** High-pressure dominance following recent frontal passages has produced mostly clear skies and light winds, limiting daytime warming while allowing efficient nocturnal radiational cooling. Recent observations show maxima of 14 °C on 20 August and similar values the prior day under comparable synoptic conditions, consistent with climatological winter averages of roughly 15–17 °C. Short-range model guidance (including Servicio Meteorológico Nacional runs) converges on afternoon temperatures reaching 13–14 °C, with limited spread arising from minor variations in boundary-layer mixing and insolation. The market-implied probabilities—14 °C at 53 %, 13 °C at 22 %, and 15 °C at 19.5 %—directly reflect this narrow forecast envelope and the modest uncertainty inherent in resolving the exact peak under stable anticyclonic flow. No significant warm-air advection or cloud-cover changes are expected before resolution, keeping the distribution tightly centered on these values.