Recent weather model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional forecasts positions Madrid’s August 3 high near 32–34°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Madrid’s continental climate typically delivers peak August highs of 32–33°C under high-pressure subsidence and intense solar heating, though Atlantic troughs or Saharan air intrusions can shift readings by several degrees. The first half of summer 2026 ranked as Spain’s warmest on record with repeated heatwaves, but early August guidance shows moderating conditions without active heat alerts, reducing odds of 35°C+ extremes while supporting the 33°C lead at 46% implied probability. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and ensemble runs in coming days will refine resolution thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 3 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 3 de agosto?
33°C 46%
34°C 25%
32°C 18%
35°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 ago 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
18%
33°C
46%
34°C
25%
35°C
7%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 46%
34°C 25%
32°C 18%
35°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 ago 2026
29°C or below
$88 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$25 Vol.
2%
31°C
$569 Vol.
3%
32°C
$881 Vol.
18%
33°C
$477 Vol.
46%
34°C
$437 Vol.
25%
35°C
$317 Vol.
7%
36°C
$216 Vol.
3%
37°C
$40 Vol.
1%
38°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$151 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional forecasts positions Madrid’s August 3 high near 32–34°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Madrid’s continental climate typically delivers peak August highs of 32–33°C under high-pressure subsidence and intense solar heating, though Atlantic troughs or Saharan air intrusions can shift readings by several degrees. The first half of summer 2026 ranked as Spain’s warmest on record with repeated heatwaves, but early August guidance shows moderating conditions without active heat alerts, reducing odds of 35°C+ extremes while supporting the 33°C lead at 46% implied probability. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and ensemble runs in coming days will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$3,337Fecha de finalización
3 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional forecasts positions Madrid’s August 3 high near 32–34°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Madrid’s continental climate typically delivers peak August highs of 32–33°C under high-pressure subsidence and intense solar heating, though Atlantic troughs or Saharan air intrusions can shift readings by several degrees. The first half of summer 2026 ranked as Spain’s warmest on record with repeated heatwaves, but early August guidance shows moderating conditions without active heat alerts, reducing odds of 35°C+ extremes while supporting the 33°C lead at 46% implied probability. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and ensemble runs in coming days will refine resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,337Fecha de finalización
3 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and regional forecasts positions Madrid’s August 3 high near 32–34°C, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Madrid’s continental climate typically delivers peak August highs of 32–33°C under high-pressure subsidence and intense solar heating, though Atlantic troughs or Saharan air intrusions can shift readings by several degrees. The first half of summer 2026 ranked as Spain’s warmest on record with repeated heatwaves, but early August guidance shows moderating conditions without active heat alerts, reducing odds of 35°C+ extremes while supporting the 33°C lead at 46% implied probability. Updated NHC-equivalent regional guidance and ensemble runs in coming days will refine resolution thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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