Persistent marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific are anchoring San Francisco’s August 9 forecast highs near 70–75 °F at official stations such as KSFO, consistent with National Weather Service and model guidance showing continued weak sea breeze despite an inland heat wave. This coastal moderation, typical for early August when average maxima hover around 70 °F, explains why traders assign over 52 % implied probability to 75 °F or below and sharply lower odds above 78 °F. Recent ensemble runs show minimal warming signals for the immediate coast through the weekend, with any strengthening high-pressure ridge expected to remain positioned farther east. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycle will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en San Francisco el 9 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en San Francisco el 9 de agosto?
75°F o menos 53%
76-77°F 21%
78-79°F 13%
80-81°F 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 ago 2026
75°F o menos
53%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F o más
<1%
75°F o menos 53%
76-77°F 21%
78-79°F 13%
80-81°F 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 ago 2026
75°F o menos
$1,815 Vol.
53%
76-77°F
$422 Vol.
21%
78-79°F
$618 Vol.
13%
80-81°F
$559 Vol.
8%
82-83°F
$1,593 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$889 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$247 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$251 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$266 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$305 Vol.
<1%
94°F o más
$365 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific are anchoring San Francisco’s August 9 forecast highs near 70–75 °F at official stations such as KSFO, consistent with National Weather Service and model guidance showing continued weak sea breeze despite an inland heat wave. This coastal moderation, typical for early August when average maxima hover around 70 °F, explains why traders assign over 52 % implied probability to 75 °F or below and sharply lower odds above 78 °F. Recent ensemble runs show minimal warming signals for the immediate coast through the weekend, with any strengthening high-pressure ridge expected to remain positioned farther east. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycle will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 7, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volumen
$7,329Fecha de finalización
9 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific are anchoring San Francisco’s August 9 forecast highs near 70–75 °F at official stations such as KSFO, consistent with National Weather Service and model guidance showing continued weak sea breeze despite an inland heat wave. This coastal moderation, typical for early August when average maxima hover around 70 °F, explains why traders assign over 52 % implied probability to 75 °F or below and sharply lower odds above 78 °F. Recent ensemble runs show minimal warming signals for the immediate coast through the weekend, with any strengthening high-pressure ridge expected to remain positioned farther east. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycle will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$7,329Fecha de finalización
9 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent marine layer and onshore flow from the Pacific are anchoring San Francisco’s August 9 forecast highs near 70–75 °F at official stations such as KSFO, consistent with National Weather Service and model guidance showing continued weak sea breeze despite an inland heat wave. This coastal moderation, typical for early August when average maxima hover around 70 °F, explains why traders assign over 52 % implied probability to 75 °F or below and sharply lower odds above 78 °F. Recent ensemble runs show minimal warming signals for the immediate coast through the weekend, with any strengthening high-pressure ridge expected to remain positioned farther east. Updated NWS briefings and next model cycle will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes