Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 5?
21°C 34%
20°C 31%
19°C 14.1%
22°C 14%
NUEVO
$18,401 Vol.
NUEVO
$18,401 Vol.
5 jul 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
14%
20°C
31%
21°C
34%
22°C
14%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
21°C 34%
20°C 31%
19°C 14.1%
22°C 14%
NUEVO
$18,401 Vol.
NUEVO
$18,401 Vol.
5 jul 2026
14°C or below
$115 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$315 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$201 Vol.
1%
18°C
$2,021 Vol.
3%
19°C
$2,069 Vol.
14%
20°C
$1,609 Vol.
31%
21°C
$8,340 Vol.
34%
22°C
$1,463 Vol.
14%
23°C
$1,089 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$1,069 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$18,401Fecha de finalización
5 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$18,401Fecha de finalización
5 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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