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Política·Mojtaba

¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?

icon for ¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?
Política·Mojtaba

¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?

$23,637,588 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$23,637,588 Vol.

Polymarket

22 de agosto

$60,148 Vol.

<1%

31 de agosto

$1,195,169 Vol.

1%

30 de septiembre

$466,178 Vol.

5%

31 de octubre

$17,762 Vol.

9%

30 de noviembre

$14,646 Vol.

10%

31 de diciembre

$4,034,269 Vol.

17%

30 de junio de 2027

$241,225 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike on 28 February 2026 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, creating an immediate leadership vacuum.** The Assembly of Experts, constitutionally tasked with selecting the successor, convened rapidly and elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son, as the new Supreme Leader on 8–9 March 2026 via unanimous vote. An interim three-person council (president, judiciary head, and senior cleric) managed affairs during the brief transition period. Subsequent developments, including Mojtaba's limited public appearances, distributed authority among IRGC and security figures, and postponed funeral ceremonies into July 2026, have reinforced institutional continuity rather than broader upheaval. Trader assessments of any "change by" timeline now center on this confirmed March succession and its durability amid active conflict.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$23,637,588
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike on 28 February 2026 amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, creating an immediate leadership vacuum.** The Assembly of Experts, constitutionally tasked with selecting the successor, convened rapidly and elected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son, as the new Supreme Leader on 8–9 March 2026 via unanimous vote. An interim three-person council (president, judiciary head, and senior cleric) managed affairs during the brief transition period. Subsequent developments, including Mojtaba's limited public appearances, distributed authority among IRGC and security figures, and postponed funeral ceremonies into July 2026, have reinforced institutional continuity rather than broader upheaval. Trader assessments of any "change by" timeline now center on this confirmed March succession and its durability amid active conflict.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$23,637,588
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 14 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "30 de junio de 2027" con 26%, seguido de "31 de diciembre" con 17%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 26¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 26% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" ha generado $23.6 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 8, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?", explora los 14 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" es "30 de junio de 2027" con 26%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 26% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "31 de diciembre" con 17%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿El liderazgo de Irán cambia por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.