Escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict has driven repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings through mid-2026, with the most recent major disruptions tied to February–July strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation. As of August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following a prior ceasefire that has since broken down amid renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA continues to advise caution due to elevated risks of short-notice disruption. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing volatility from potential further exchanges, regional spillover affecting neighboring FIRs, and the pattern of temporary closures during active threats, with any new strikes or interceptions likely to prompt immediate reassessment of closure probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$27,110,419 Vol.
15 jul 2026
31 de agosto
3%
$27,110,419 Vol.
31 de agosto
$1,078,538 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict has driven repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings through mid-2026, with the most recent major disruptions tied to February–July strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation. As of August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following a prior ceasefire that has since broken down amid renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA continues to advise caution due to elevated risks of short-notice disruption. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing volatility from potential further exchanges, regional spillover affecting neighboring FIRs, and the pattern of temporary closures during active threats, with any new strikes or interceptions likely to prompt immediate reassessment of closure probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volumen
$27,110,419Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict has driven repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings through mid-2026, with the most recent major disruptions tied to February–July strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation. As of August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following a prior ceasefire that has since broken down amid renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA continues to advise caution due to elevated risks of short-notice disruption. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing volatility from potential further exchanges, regional spillover affecting neighboring FIRs, and the pattern of temporary closures during active threats, with any new strikes or interceptions likely to prompt immediate reassessment of closure probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$27,110,419Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict has driven repeated Israeli airspace closures and reopenings through mid-2026, with the most recent major disruptions tied to February–July strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliation. As of August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open following a prior ceasefire that has since broken down amid renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA continues to advise caution due to elevated risks of short-notice disruption. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing volatility from potential further exchanges, regional spillover affecting neighboring FIRs, and the pattern of temporary closures during active threats, with any new strikes or interceptions likely to prompt immediate reassessment of closure probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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