Persistent internal pressure within South Korea’s People Power Party has shaped trader assessments of Jang Dong-hyeok’s leadership tenure, reflected in the 63.5 percent implied probability that he departs before June 30, 2026. Escalating criticism from party candidates and factions ahead of the June 3 local elections, including a public resignation demand from Busan mayoral hopeful Joo Gwang-deok on May 11, has underscored low approval ratings and factional divisions. Jang has declined repeated calls to step down early, stating he will accept voter judgment after the contests, yet analysts highlight the strong prospect of a post-election no-confidence vote or leadership challenge that could force a change before the end of June. These near-term electoral and party dynamics continue to inform market pricing.