**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C for September 4, driven by the combined effects of a lingering tropical cyclone and northeast monsoon flow.** These conditions promote increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and enhanced mixing that limits daytime heating while allowing modest overnight cooling under humid air masses with dew points near 24–25°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for lows in this narrow range, aligning with climatological early-September averages but tempered by the transient cyclonic influence that suppresses stronger radiational cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities closely tracks these authoritative predictions, with limited dispersion due to the short time horizon before resolution and stable steering patterns. Updated forecast discussions or new observational data from the Observatory could refine odds if wind or rainfall trends shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Hong Kong el 4 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Hong Kong el 4 de septiembre?
25°C 51%
26°C 32%
24°C 10%
27°C 7.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
20°C o menos
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
4%
24°C
10%
25°C
51%
26°C
32%
27°C
8%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C o más
<1%
25°C 51%
26°C 32%
24°C 10%
27°C 7.5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 sep 2026
20°C o menos
$1,277 Vol.
1%
21°C
$84 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$265 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$390 Vol.
4%
24°C
$822 Vol.
10%
25°C
$3,869 Vol.
51%
26°C
$938 Vol.
32%
27°C
$353 Vol.
8%
28°C
$655 Vol.
1%
29°C
$566 Vol.
1%
30°C o más
$42 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C for September 4, driven by the combined effects of a lingering tropical cyclone and northeast monsoon flow.** These conditions promote increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and enhanced mixing that limits daytime heating while allowing modest overnight cooling under humid air masses with dew points near 24–25°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for lows in this narrow range, aligning with climatological early-September averages but tempered by the transient cyclonic influence that suppresses stronger radiational cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities closely tracks these authoritative predictions, with limited dispersion due to the short time horizon before resolution and stable steering patterns. Updated forecast discussions or new observational data from the Observatory could refine odds if wind or rainfall trends shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$9,262Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C for September 4, driven by the combined effects of a lingering tropical cyclone and northeast monsoon flow.** These conditions promote increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and enhanced mixing that limits daytime heating while allowing modest overnight cooling under humid air masses with dew points near 24–25°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for lows in this narrow range, aligning with climatological early-September averages but tempered by the transient cyclonic influence that suppresses stronger radiational cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities closely tracks these authoritative predictions, with limited dispersion due to the short time horizon before resolution and stable steering patterns. Updated forecast discussions or new observational data from the Observatory could refine odds if wind or rainfall trends shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,262Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature of 25–26°C for September 4, driven by the combined effects of a lingering tropical cyclone and northeast monsoon flow.** These conditions promote increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and enhanced mixing that limits daytime heating while allowing modest overnight cooling under humid air masses with dew points near 24–25°C. Recent model runs show consistent guidance for lows in this narrow range, aligning with climatological early-September averages but tempered by the transient cyclonic influence that suppresses stronger radiational cooling. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities closely tracks these authoritative predictions, with limited dispersion due to the short time horizon before resolution and stable steering patterns. Updated forecast discussions or new observational data from the Observatory could refine odds if wind or rainfall trends shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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