**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and real-time observations are driving the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability for a 25°C low on September 3, 2026.** HKO guidance projects a daily range of 26–31°C under northwest winds of 4–5, occasionally stronger offshore, with only isolated showers and moderate humidity. Early-morning readings and hourly data show temperatures stabilizing near 25–26°C overnight, consistent with climatological early-September minima around 24.7°C but elevated by regional steering from nearby tropical systems and drier continental air. Trader consensus reflects this narrow, data-supported window; a credible challenge would require a sharp, unexpected drop below 25°C from stronger radiative cooling, wind shifts, or heavier rainfall not currently indicated in model consensus or agency updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Hong Kong el 3 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Hong Kong el 3 de septiembre?
25°C 99.3%
24°C 3%
23°C <1%
21°C <1%
$19,761 Vol.
$19,761 Vol.
3 sep 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
99%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.3%
24°C 3%
23°C <1%
21°C <1%
$19,761 Vol.
$19,761 Vol.
3 sep 2026
20°C or below
$474 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$463 Vol.
1%
22°C
$787 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,539 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,970 Vol.
3%
25°C
$3,348 Vol.
99%
26°C
$5,944 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,322 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,396 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,047 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$470 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and real-time observations are driving the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability for a 25°C low on September 3, 2026.** HKO guidance projects a daily range of 26–31°C under northwest winds of 4–5, occasionally stronger offshore, with only isolated showers and moderate humidity. Early-morning readings and hourly data show temperatures stabilizing near 25–26°C overnight, consistent with climatological early-September minima around 24.7°C but elevated by regional steering from nearby tropical systems and drier continental air. Trader consensus reflects this narrow, data-supported window; a credible challenge would require a sharp, unexpected drop below 25°C from stronger radiative cooling, wind shifts, or heavier rainfall not currently indicated in model consensus or agency updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$19,761Fecha de finalización
3 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and real-time observations are driving the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability for a 25°C low on September 3, 2026.** HKO guidance projects a daily range of 26–31°C under northwest winds of 4–5, occasionally stronger offshore, with only isolated showers and moderate humidity. Early-morning readings and hourly data show temperatures stabilizing near 25–26°C overnight, consistent with climatological early-September minima around 24.7°C but elevated by regional steering from nearby tropical systems and drier continental air. Trader consensus reflects this narrow, data-supported window; a credible challenge would require a sharp, unexpected drop below 25°C from stronger radiative cooling, wind shifts, or heavier rainfall not currently indicated in model consensus or agency updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$19,761Fecha de finalización
3 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and real-time observations are driving the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability for a 25°C low on September 3, 2026.** HKO guidance projects a daily range of 26–31°C under northwest winds of 4–5, occasionally stronger offshore, with only isolated showers and moderate humidity. Early-morning readings and hourly data show temperatures stabilizing near 25–26°C overnight, consistent with climatological early-September minima around 24.7°C but elevated by regional steering from nearby tropical systems and drier continental air. Trader consensus reflects this narrow, data-supported window; a credible challenge would require a sharp, unexpected drop below 25°C from stronger radiative cooling, wind shifts, or heavier rainfall not currently indicated in model consensus or agency updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes